The Next Stage Scenarios Mentioned by Kim Jong Un [Yang Nakkyu's Defence Club]

Kim Jong Un: "Next Phase Plans to Be Announced at Party Congress Next Month"
Possible Scenarios: Nuclear Test, Unveiling of Nuclear Delivery Weapons, and Declaration of Operational Deployment

There is growing interest in the "next phase of nuclear war deterrence" mentioned by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un. This implies an intention to further strengthen the country's nuclear armament. Experts believe this could involve additional nuclear tests and mass production of tactical nuclear warheads.

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un observed the test firing of an improved large-caliber multiple rocket launcher on the 27th, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 28th. Kim's daughter, Ju Ae, also witnessed the test firing. Photo by Pyongyang Korean Central News Agency Yonhap News

According to information released by North Korea on January 29, Kim Jong Un stated, "The 9th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea will announce plans for the next phase to further strengthen the nation's nuclear war deterrence capabilities." The upcoming 9th Party Congress, expected to take place next month, is analyzed as the occasion where a new five-year plan related to nuclear war deterrence will be unveiled. The Party Congress is North Korea's largest political event, held once every five years, where the country's domestic and foreign policy directions for the next five years are determined.

What stands out is that Kim Jong Un used the term "offensive capability." This marks a departure from previous rhetoric. While the focus has previously been on the defensive nature of nuclear weapons, there is now speculation that tasks related to offensive nuclear weapons may be presented. Experts have outlined various scenarios, including the possibility of testing tactical nuclear warheads or super-large nuclear warheads, and the public unveiling of weapons capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads.

Nuclear Test Theory to Prove Miniaturization of Nuclear Weapons

First, there is the possibility of a nuclear test. North Korea's nuclear tests have been continuously monitored. Since the presidential election before the start of the second Trump administration, both domestic and international experts have strongly asserted this possibility. In January 2021, Kim Jong Un also emphasized the "production of super-large nuclear warheads" as one of the "top five priority tasks in the strategic weapons sector." North Korea conducted six nuclear tests between October 2006 and September 2017, with the third through sixth tests occurring during Kim Jong Un's rule. The explosive yield increased with each test: 6-7 kilotons (third test), 6 kilotons (fourth test), 10 kilotons (fifth test), and 50 kilotons (sixth test). If a super-large nuclear warhead detonation test is conducted, it is expected that its yield could be two to three times greater than the sixth test.

The South Korean government's position is the same. The military believes that tunnels 3 and 4 at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, which have not yet been used for nuclear testing, are ready for immediate use. If North Korea presses the button for a nuclear test, there is a high possibility that it will be a hydrogen bomb test for mounting on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In 2024, the National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that "North Korea possesses about 70 kilograms of plutonium and a significant amount of highly enriched uranium, which is sufficient to produce at least a double-digit number of nuclear weapons," adding that "a test could take place after, rather than before, the U.S. presidential election."

Public Disclosure of Various Improved Nuclear-Armed Weapons

North Korea may also reveal various nuclear delivery weapons and announce plans to increase their numbers or deploy them in practice. When Kim Jong Un visited the Nuclear Weapons Institute in 2023, he unveiled the actual tactical nuclear warhead named "Hwasan-31." North Korea has claimed that the Hwasan-31 can be mounted on more than ten types of weapons, including the 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), the unmanned underwater attack craft Haeil, the Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 cruise missiles, KN-24 (ATACMS), and mini submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Last year, in his speech on the September 9th National Day and during his visit to the Defense Science Institute's Armored Defense Weapons Research Institute, Kim Jong Un also revealed plans to increase the number of nuclear weapons and deploy them in practice.

Declaration of Deployment of Completed Nuclear-Armed Weapons

There is also discussion about dispersing the nuclear-armed weapons developed so far across land, sea, and air forces. The military authorities estimate the yield of the Hwasan-31 at 10 kilotons (1 kiloton is the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT). During the third nuclear test in March 2009, North Korea demonstrated an explosive yield of 5 kilotons. If North Korea mounts the Hwasan-31 on the new ballistic missiles KN-23, KN-24, and KN-25, which were developed to target South Korea, the nuclear strike threat to the entire Korean Peninsula becomes a reality. The KN-23 (maximum range 800 km), KN-24 (600 km), and KN-25 (400 km) all have ranges that cover the entirety of South Korea.

North Korea previously reported holding a ceremony to deliver 250 new tactical ballistic missile launchers for deployment to frontline units. Each launcher is equipped with four launch tubes, so, arithmetically, if all 250 launchers are operated simultaneously, up to 1,000 missiles could be launched at once.

Shin Jongwoo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, stated, "The new large-caliber multiple rocket launcher (600mm) that North Korea fired on the 27th is notable for its increased number of launch tubes," adding, "By standardizing the new large-caliber multiple rocket launcher, North Korea could mass-produce multiple launchers equipped with tactical nuclear warheads."