[June 3 Local Elections] ⑧ Sejong Mayoral Race: Competition for 'Administrative Capital Completion' Candidate... Key Issue Is Ruling Bloc Unification

Democratic Party: Former Mayor Lee Chunhee Eyes Third Term
Ruling Bloc: Ko Joonil, Kim Suhyeon, and Cho Sangho Weigh Their Options
People Power Party: Incumbent Advantage Favors Choi Minho
Rebuilding Korea Party: Hwang Unha Joins, Setting Up a Three-Way Race
Traditionally a Democratic Stronghold,
But Polls Show a Tight Race and a Fluid Landscape
If Ruling Bloc Votes Split, People Power Party Gains an Edge

Sejong City, with an average age of 39.6, is the youngest city among the 17 metropolitan and provincial areas in South Korea. It was established as part of former President Roh Moo-hyun's initiative to ease the concentration of population in the capital region and achieve balanced national development, and has traditionally been considered a stronghold for progressive parties. However, as seen in the 2022 local elections where the People Power Party candidate was elected, the region serves as a casting vote area where the balance of power between the ruling and opposition parties can shift at any time, depending on candidate competitiveness and local issues.

What Are the Historical Election Results?

Since Sejong City's establishment in 2012, there have been four elections, including by-elections. Excluding the election won by the local Liberty Forward Party, candidates from the Democratic Party and its affiliates have won twice, while the People Power Party has won once.

In the 2012 election for the 5th popularly elected mayor of Sejong, Yoo Hansik of the Liberty Forward Party was elected with 41.73% of the vote. Subsequently, Lee Chunhee of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy and later the Democratic Party was elected as mayor for the 6th and 7th terms, with 57.78% and 71.30% of the vote, respectively. In the 8th local elections held in 2022, shortly after the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, Choi Minho of the People Power Party defeated incumbent Lee's bid for a third term, winning with 52.83% of the vote.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

Within the People Power Party, incumbent Mayor Choi Minho is the leading contender for re-election. In the Democratic Party, several figures are expected to compete for the nomination. Former Sejong Mayor Lee Chunhee, former Sejong City Vice Mayor for Economic Affairs Cho Sangho, former Sejong City Council Chairman Ko Joonil, and Kim Suhyeon, Standing Representative of the Democratic Innovation Council of Sejong, have either announced their candidacy or are preparing to run. From the Rebuilding Korea Party, Assemblyman Hwang Unha has officially declared his candidacy.

What Are the Trends in Public Opinion Polls?

According to recent opinion polls (KBS Daejeon-Korea Research, WinGKorea Consulting-Daejeon Today), Mayor Choi is leading in the People Power Party, while former Mayor Lee and former Vice Mayor Cho are strong contenders in the ruling bloc. The Korea Research poll showed Mayor Choi at 15% and former Vice Mayor Cho at 14%. The WinGKorea Consulting poll recorded Mayor Choi at 20.3% and former Mayor Lee at 18.5%. However, since Democratic Party candidates are among the top contenders in terms of support, the results could change if the race narrows to a one-on-one contest.

What Are the Characteristics of the Sejong Election?

The key challenge for the next mayor of Sejong is the completion of the administrative capital. This is why there is a prevailing opinion that a mayor capable of demonstrating both political and administrative leadership is needed. Historically, most Sejong mayors have come from administrative, rather than political, backgrounds.

<Opinion Polls>

- Korea Research (commissioned by KBS Daejeon, surveyed men and women aged 18 and over residing in Sejong, December 22-24 last year, telephone interviews, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level)
- WinGKorea Consulting (commissioned by Daejeon Today, surveyed men and women aged 18 and over residing in Sejong, December 26-27 last year, wireless ARS method, margin of error ±3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level) *For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.