[June 3 Local Elections]⑦ Daejeon, the 'Barometer of Public Sentiment'... The Biggest Variable Is Administrative Integration

Jang Cheolmin and Jang Jongtae from the Democratic Party Announce Bids
Park Beomgye, Park Soohyun, and Heo Taejeong Also Considered
Lee Jangwoo and Kim Taeheum from People Power Party Mentioned

The upcoming 9th nationwide local elections on June 3 will draw attention to the Daejeon mayoral race, as it will determine the winner in the central region. Depending on whether administrative integration between Daejeon and Chungnam takes place, this race could become a nationally significant election. If the integration is realized, Daejeon and Chungnam will rapidly emerge as a mega-regional hub city with a population of 3.6 million.

◆ Characteristics of the Daejeon and Chungcheong Elections = The Chungcheong region has long been regarded as a bellwether in national elections, often playing the role of a "swing voter." In particular, since 2014, the party that has produced the Daejeon mayor has ultimately emerged as the overall winner of the election. This is closely related to the region's geographical characteristics, as it belongs to Chungcheong but has a large influx of people from the capital area, Yeongnam, and Honam. The relatively weak regional identity has also contributed to election outcomes that reflect the prevailing public sentiment.

◆ Previous Daejeon Mayoral Elections = In the history of directly elected Daejeon mayoral races, parties affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Grand National Party, and even the now-defunct Liberty Democratic Union (United Liberal Democrats) have all shown strength. In 1995 and 1998, Hong Seongi of the United Liberal Democrats won the election. In 2002, Yeom Hongcheol of the Grand National Party was elected, followed by Park Seonghyo of the same party in 2006. In 2010, Yeom, running as a Liberty Forward Party candidate, was elected again. In 2014, Kwon Seontaek of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy won, followed by Heo Taejeong of the Democratic Party in 2018, and Lee Jangwoo of the People Power Party in 2022.

◆ Potential Candidates = Within the Democratic Party, incumbent lawmakers Jang Cheolmin and Jang Jongtae have already announced their candidacies. Park Soo-hyun, representing Gongju in Chungnam, and Park Beomgye, representing Seo-gu in Daejeon, are also being considered. Former Mayor Heo Taejeong is seen as a strong contender, and the name of former Chungnam Governor Yang Seungjo has also been mentioned. There are ongoing discussions about recruiting Kang Hoonshik, Chief Presidential Secretary. For the People Power Party, incumbent Daejeon Mayor Lee Jangwoo and Chungnam Governor Kim Tae-heum are both being mentioned as potential candidates.

◆ Recent Poll Trends = According to a Korea Gallup poll released on January 9, the approval rating for the Democratic Party in the Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong regions was 48%, while the People Power Party stood at 24%. Although neither the candidates nor the election structure have been finalized, the race is unfolding with the Democratic Party in a favorable position. The People Power Party benefits from the incumbent advantage, but if it fails to overcome its lower party approval rating, it is expected to face a tough contest in Daejeon.

<Public Opinion Poll>

- Korea Gallup (January 6-8; nationwide telephone interviews with 1,000 adults aged 18 and older; margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website for details.