[Bloomberg Column] A Harsher World Order May Backfire on the U.S.

The Rapid Collapse of the Postwar Liberal Order
Return of Superpower-Driven Power Politics
Trump's Diplomacy of Overt National Interest
A World Order Ruled by Force Undermines U.S. Credibility

A superpower is attacking drug transport vessels on shaky legal grounds and kidnapping foreign leaders in the dead of night. From Greenland to Ukraine to the Himalayas, major powers are redrawing the borders of their weaker neighbors-or at the very least, threatening to do so.

As strategic competition intensifies, international law and arms control agreements are collapsing, and the mechanisms that once deterred aggression are weakening, leading to more frequent armed conflicts. Even freedom of navigation is being challenged along major maritime routes from the Red Sea to the Western Pacific. The rules-based trading order is increasingly becoming a relic of the past.

The symptoms may vary, but the underlying condition is the same. The world order that has supported the postwar liberal international system is gradually departing from the framework established after 1945. The pace of this departure is only accelerating. What lies ahead is an era where the power of rules is diminished and the logic of brute force prevails-a much rougher and more ruthless age. It is also a time when the superpower that once upheld this order now seeks to benefit by dismantling it.

There is no need to romanticize the liberal international order. Every era has had its moments of outrage, acts of brutality, and hypocrisy. The examples of Guatemala, Iran, and Chile make it clear that the United States has not always strictly adhered to the rules. Nevertheless, the decades following 1945 were relatively more humane and enlightened. This was because the United States, as the world's strongest power, generally strove to protect norms like freedom of the seas and the prohibition of territorial conquest by force, while also building alliances and institutional arrangements that maintained a considerable degree of stability and peace.

There is a telling statistic that illustrates this point. From 1816 to 1945, one quarter of the world's countries disappeared from the map at some point. However, since 1945, "state death" has become a rare occurrence. The driving force behind this project was not altruism, but self-interest. The United States and its allies believed this was the best way to contain the anarchic chaos that had twice engulfed the world in previous decades. After the Cold War, the United States used its military and economic power to build international organizations and alliances, ensuring that norms such as the prohibition of conquest by force and freedom of navigation, along with liberal values, could operate within that framework.

Historians will likely describe the post-World War II era as a golden age of peace, prosperity, and expanding freedom. However, that era may now be coming to an end. The blame does not rest on one side alone. Russia and China have long resisted the U.S.-led rules-especially America's preference for democracy and its reluctance to see authoritarian powers expand their influence. As their own power has grown, they have sought to reverse these rules. From Israel to the Baltic states, democracies under threat have concluded that buffer zones and landmines may protect them better than international law or arms control agreements.

The excesses of globalization and the predatory rise of China have rendered the World Trade Organization (WTO) ineffective. Even the United States, which has led this order, began to reconsider whether the liberal international order truly served its interests, particularly before and after the return to power of President Donald Trump.

As is always the case when President Trump appears, the situation is not simple. Though he has shown contempt for the international order, he dealt a clear blow to nuclear nonproliferation by destroying Iran's nuclear program. He also orchestrated the dramatic arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, bringing down a brutal drug dictator in the Caribbean. Against Yemen's Houthi rebels, he launched a brief but forceful military operation to secure maritime trade. Maintaining the international order requires strength, and indeed, America's frontline allies are increasing their military spending in response to President Trump's pressure.

However, President Trump is pursuing overt national interests, such as controlling Venezuelan oil, through gunboat diplomacy. He has torn up trade agreements and threatened existing borders. The promotion of democracy and human rights has become little more than a justification for mercenary policies.

"We live in a world governed by force. Coercion and power move the world. This is the iron law that has ruled the world since the beginning of time," said Stephen Miller, a powerful figure in the White House and Deputy Chief of Staff, in a recent statement. While not entirely wrong, this view misses the point and starkly reveals just how excessively President Trump sees the world through a lens of coercion.

President Trump believes that a world with weakened norms and overt competition favors the most aggressive and powerful actors. If the great powers each carve out spheres of influence in their adjacent regions, the United States-which dominates the entire Western Hemisphere-will be in the most advantageous position. President Trump's core strategy has always been the same: the belief that the United States is better prepared than any other nation to thrive in a survival-of-the-fittest environment. If Washington no longer has the will to support the liberal international order, or if it decides it cannot bear the costs of meeting growing challenges, then it is more rational to simply claim the largest share of the spoils.

But that logic only holds in the short term. The long-term consequences may be far less smooth. If, as President Trump has persistently threatened, the United States were to actually seize Greenland, it could destabilize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the alliance that most significantly expands America's own influence and strategic reach.

Furthermore, if the United States adopts the ancient Greek Melian logic that "the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must"-the idea that might makes right-America's power will lose its credibility and legitimacy in the international community. President Trump believes that even after the order led by the United States collapses, American power and prosperity will survive and even grow. However, in typical Trumpian fashion, even if that calculation proves wrong, the resulting damage is likely to be borne by American society and the next administration.

Hal Brands, Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University

This article is a translation by The Asia Business Daily of Bloomberg's column, "The World Order Is Becoming More Cutthroat."