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Hollywood Bets on "Certainty Over Adventure"... Wagering on Billion-Dollar Nostalgia

Avengers and Dune 3 Set for a Winter Box Office Showdown
Woody, Minions, and Mario... Proven Childhood Favorites Turn into Profits
Nolan's Odyssey Unveiled... "An Original Gamble"

Hollywood Bets on "Certainty Over Adventure"... Wagering on Billion-Dollar Nostalgia Movie Poster for "Avengers: Doomsday"

This year, major Hollywood studios are betting on "certainty" rather than "adventure." They are bringing out their most powerful intellectual properties (IP) that have been stored away in their vaults. After enduring uncertainty in the wake of the pandemic, they have shifted strategies to minimize the risks of developing new IP. Instead, they are pouring astronomical amounts of capital into "names everyone remembers" around the world.


Leading entertainment media outlets in the United States have identified "safe sequels" and "massive nostalgia" as the keywords that will define theaters next year. Variety predicted, "Hollywood in 2026 will be remembered as the year when the biggest franchises in history collide head-on." The Wrap also analyzed, "Failure in this round would mean an irreversible derailment," adding, "Studios are aiming for a spectacular comeback by putting their most iconic characters at the forefront." As these analyses suggest, 2026 is set to become a true "battlefield of giants."


Hollywood Bets on "Certainty Over Adventure"... Wagering on Billion-Dollar Nostalgia From the left, still cut from the movie Spider-Man: No Way Home, still cut from the movie The Batman.
The Dark War Between Marvel and DC

The battle for supremacy in the superhero market seemed to be shaping up with Marvel dominating the first half of the year and DC the second, but Marvel has raised the stakes, extending the front lines into winter. Marvel's "Avengers: Doomsday," originally scheduled for release on May 1, has been dramatically postponed to December 18 to allow for a longer post-production period and higher quality. The mere fact that Robert Downey Jr. returns, not as Iron Man but as the ultimate villain Doctor Doom, has electrified audiences worldwide. This is Marvel's last card to escape its current crisis.


The summer box office throne is being targeted by Tom Holland. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," set for release in July, will follow Peter Parker's growth as a college student. Given that the previous film, "Spider-Man: No Way Home," achieved a phenomenal $1.9 billion in revenue even during the pandemic, this new installment is also considered a core tentpole that will support the Marvel Universe.


In response, DC Studios is competing with the weight of its "dark hero." "The Batman Part 2," opening in October and starring Robert Pattinson, promises a noir detective story that delves into the depths of Gotham City. Earlier, in June, the highly anticipated "Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow" under James Gunn's leadership will be unveiled, aiming to revive the DC Universe.


Hollywood Bets on "Certainty Over Adventure"... Wagering on Billion-Dollar Nostalgia From the left, still cut from the movie Super Mario Bros., still cut from the movie Toy Story 4.
Woody, the Minions, and Mario... The Animation Money Game

The animation market targeting family audiences is shaping up to be a "reunion of legends." Nintendo's plumber brothers will kick things off. "Super Mario Brothers 2," opening on April 3, plans to dominate the spring box office, building on the $1.3 billion success of its predecessor.


The summer will see a pride match between Pixar and Illumination. Pixar will release "Toy Story 5" in June, continuing the legacy of the series. With the likely reunion of Woody and Buzz, the key will be how much the film can evoke nostalgia among fans. Illumination will counter on July 1 with "Minions 3." As an expansion of the "Despicable Me" universe, whose previous installments have all become global mega-hits, the film aims to monopolize the summer vacation family audience with its signature slapstick humor and the dynamic between the Minions and Gru.


Regarding this high-stakes showdown, Variety commented, "This year's animation lineup boasts a powerful fandom that spans all generations, making it highly likely to join the global $1 billion club."


Hollywood Bets on "Certainty Over Adventure"... Wagering on Billion-Dollar Nostalgia Movie 'Odyssey' Still Cut
Nolan's "Odyssey"... Pushing the Limits of Technology

Amidst the flood of sequels, "Odyssey," opening on July 17, is the most anticipated "event" for cinephiles. Based on Homer's epic poem, the film is expected to be a completely new action piece, thanks to Christopher Nolan's unique interpretation.


Director Nolan has once again pushed technical boundaries by shooting the entire film with IMAX film cameras. The cast is also unprecedented, featuring Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Lupita Nyong'o, Robert Pattinson, and Charlize Theron-a lineup reminiscent of the Academy Awards.


While the plot remains tightly under wraps, industry expectations are exceptionally high. At a time when everyone else is following "safe box office formulas," only Nolan has taken the bold approach of betting everything on the "theatrical experience." Variety described this audacious and massive challenge as "the only original gamble Hollywood has allowed amid a sea of franchises," expressing great anticipation.


Hollywood Bets on "Certainty Over Adventure"... Wagering on Billion-Dollar Nostalgia Movie 'Dune: Part 2' Still Cut
The Expansion of Fantasy... Dune, Hunger Games, Star Wars

The science fiction and fantasy genres will continue to expand their vast universes. The most anticipated title is Denis Villeneuve's "Dune: Part 3," which will premiere on the same day as "Avengers: Doomsday." The film will depict the story of Paul Atreides, played by Timoth?e Chalamet, and what follows his holy war. This epic, which captures the fate and tragic anguish of a hero who shook the universe, is expected to be the grand finale of the sci-fi saga designed by Villeneuve.


Other works that have made history in the fantasy genre are also making a spectacular return. On November 20, the new installment of the "Hunger Games" series, "Hunger Games: Sunrise of the Harvest," which once sparked a global survival craze, will be released, exploring the origins of Panem. On May 22, "The Mandalorian and Grogu," the return of the "Star Wars" series to theaters, will premiere, and on July 10, Disney's live-action adaptation of "Moana" will hit the screens.


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