[Bitcoin Now] Prolonged Range-Bound Virtual Asset Market Shrinks Trading... Intensified Exchange Marketing Competition

Trading Volume Plummets Compared to Last Year Amid Reduced Volatility
Exchanges Turn to Events to Retain Investors in Fee-Dependent Structure

As the prices of virtual assets such as Bitcoin have entered a stagnant phase, the trading volume in the domestic virtual asset market has also noticeably declined. With signs that the contraction in trading may persist, domestic virtual asset exchanges are ramping up marketing efforts with various events and promotions to prevent user attrition.

According to CoinMarketCap, a global virtual asset market data platform, the price of Bitcoin stood at $93,882.55 on January 5.

After surpassing $125,000 in October last year and reaching an all-time high, the price of Bitcoin began to decline, dropping to as low as $80,000 in November. Although it has rebounded to over $90,000 this month, it remains about 25% below its peak.

The recent rebound has been influenced by geopolitical uncertainty. The preference for safe-haven assets has strengthened following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump that military operations could be expanded not only to Venezuela but also to Colombia. Although Bitcoin is generally classified as a risk asset, some analysts note that, amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, it is increasingly being viewed as an alternative investment for risk hedging.

However, due to the overall downward trend in prices, trading volume has decreased. The reduced volatility of major virtual assets such as Bitcoin has led to diminished trading demand. According to CoinGecko, as of 4:20 a.m. on January 6, the daily trading volume at the five major domestic virtual asset exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX) was $3,337,530,000. On January 5, it was $2,178,340,000. This is a sharp decline compared to the $16,512,720,000 recorded on January 9 last year.

The underperformance of altcoins is also cited as a factor accelerating the overall decline in trading volume. In the past, sharp price swings and new listings of altcoins were key drivers of increased trading activity. However, there is currently a lack of clear themes or momentum. With Bitcoin stuck in a trading range, altcoins have also been sluggish, leading investors to remain on the sidelines. For example, Ethereum, which traded above $4,800 in August last year, is now hovering around $3,200.

The weakness in the virtual asset market, coupled with the strength of the stock market, is also identified as a reason for the drop in trading volume. The KOSPI index posted an annual gain of 75% last year and recently surpassed the 4,500 mark to reach a new all-time high. As the stock market has shown a clear upward trend, some liquidity that had been parked in the virtual asset market is believed to be shifting to equities.

'Shrinking Trading Volume: Virtual Asset Exchanges Struggle to Retain Investors'

In this environment, virtual asset exchanges are stepping up their marketing efforts to attract users. Upbit recently collaborated with Tous Les Jours to launch the "2026 Upbit Wish Cake." Customers who purchase the cake receive an entry ticket for an event, where winners are selected by lottery to receive prizes such as one Bitcoin. Last month, Bithumb participated as the organizer of the second HPT (Hangame Poker Tour), an on- and offline poker tournament for NHN's mobile poker game "Hangame Royal Hold'em." The total prize pool is Bitcoin worth 1 billion KRW. Additionally, various other events are being held, such as awarding newly listed virtual assets as prizes based on their trading volume.

The focus on user marketing is closely tied to the exchanges' revenue structure. The majority of revenue for virtual asset exchanges comes from trading fees. In fact, as of the third quarter of this year, 97.94% of Upbit's revenue came from fees. Since a decrease in trading volume can directly lead to a decline in earnings, exchanges are pursuing strategies to maintain trading activity through events and promotions.

Although trading volume has begun to recover recently as Bitcoin and other assets rebound, most expect that the marketing competition among exchanges will continue for the time being. This is because investor caution is unlikely to dissipate easily amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy and the unclear direction of the global virtual asset market.

In particular, the outlook is polarized, making it difficult to predict the market's direction. Fidelity has taken a conservative view, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to the $65,000-$75,000 range as it goes through a correction phase this year. In contrast, JP Morgan has presented a scenario in which Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 if positive market conditions persist.

An official from the virtual asset industry commented, "As global market volatility subsides and investor sentiment weakens, trading volume has decreased across the board, prompting exchanges to strengthen events aimed not only at boosting short-term trading but also at expanding user engagement. In the past, price volatility naturally drove trading, but recently, strategies to increase user retention and repeat visits have become increasingly important."