[6.3 Local Elections] ② Seoul Mayoral Race: Ruling and Opposition Parties Tied at 5 Wins Each... Who Will Claim the 11th Victory?

Alternating Victories Between Democratic and People Power Parties Since the First Direct Election
Jeong Wonoh and Park Joomin in Close Race with Oh Sehoon
Gangnam District Consolidation and Real Estate Prices as Key Variables

Every time the nationwide local elections are held, Seoul, known as the "No. 1 Political District," becomes the fiercest battleground between the ruling and opposition parties. It is a swing region where neither side can claim absolute dominance. Regardless of the overall national election results, the party that wins the Seoul mayoral race sometimes gains significant political benefits. Being elected as the mayor of Seoul elevates one's political status to the extent that the winner is considered a strong contender for the next presidential race.

Track Record of Seoul Mayors

Since the introduction of the local autonomy system, the Seoul mayoral elections have been dominated by candidates from the Democratic Party and the People Power Party and their respective predecessors. In the first direct election for Seoul mayor in 1995, Cho Soon of the Democratic Party won with 42.4% of the vote. The second term saw Goh Kun of the New Politics National Assembly elected in 1998 with a 53.5% vote share. Up to this point, parties affiliated with the Democratic Party had been the victors.

However, the trend shifted with the third-term Seoul mayoral election in 2002, when Lee Myungbak of the Grand National Party ran as a candidate. He won with 52.3% of the vote, defeating Kim Minseok of the Millennium Democratic Party (who later served as Prime Minister under the Lee Jaemyung administration).

Mayor Oh won consecutive victories in the fourth (61.1%) and fifth (47.4%) Seoul mayoral elections. However, after voluntarily resigning over the free school meal issue, the trend changed again. In the 2011 by-election, independent candidate Park Wonsoon ran as the unified opposition candidate and won with 53.4% of the vote. After joining the Democratic Party, former Mayor Park won the sixth and seventh Seoul mayoral elections with 56.1% and 52.8% of the vote, respectively. However, following the death of former Mayor Park in 2021, a by-election was held, and the leadership changed hands once more. Mayor Oh reclaimed the Seoul mayoralty after 10 years with 57.5% of the vote. In the 2022 local elections, Mayor Oh achieved a landslide victory with 59.1% of the vote. Including by-elections, there have been a total of 10 Seoul mayoral elections, with Democratic Party candidates winning five times and People Power Party candidates also winning five times.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

Currently, within the Democratic Party, Assemblymen Park Honggeun, Park Jumin, and Kim Youngbae have officially announced their candidacies for Seoul mayor (in order of announcement). Additionally, Assemblymen Jeon Hyunhee, Seo Youngkyo, and former Assemblymen Hong Ikpyo and Park Yongjin are also considered potential candidates. Jeong Wono, the mayor of Seongdong District from the Democratic Party, has effectively confirmed his intention to run for Seoul mayor. Prime Minister Kim Minseok has withdrawn his name from Seoul mayor-related polls through a request for work cooperation. On the People Power Party side, the incumbent Mayor Oh is considered the leading contender for re-election, while Assemblywoman Na Kyungwon is also being mentioned. In addition, Assemblymen Ahn Cheolsoo, Cho Eunhee, Cho Junghoon, and Shin Dongwook are being cited in opinion polls related to the Seoul mayoral race.

Opinion Poll Trends

According to recent opinion polls (conducted by Newsis-Ace Research, MBC-Korea Research, JTBC-Metavoice·Global Research), Jeong, the district mayor, and Assemblyman Park Jumin are showing strong support within the ruling party. Among the opposition, Mayor Oh maintains a strong lead, with Assemblywoman Na emerging as a major rival.

In hypothetical matchups, Jeong and Park both had close contests with Mayor Oh within the margin of error. In the Metavoice poll, Mayor Oh and Jeong scored 38% to 39%, while in the Korea Research poll, the result was 36% to 34%. In the same surveys, Mayor Oh and Assemblyman Park Jumin scored 37% to 35% and 37% to 34%, respectively. Jeong led Assemblywoman Na by 44% to 31% in a head-to-head matchup. Assemblyman Park Jumin also led Assemblywoman Na by 43% to 31%, a margin outside the margin of error.

Characteristics of the Seoul Election

The Seoul mayoral election is characterized by strong support for the People Power Party in the three Gangnam districts and Yongsan District. The consolidation of votes in the populous three Gangnam districts has been a major variable in the election. In the last local election, the People Power Party secured high vote shares of 60-70% in the three Gangnam districts and Yongsan District. In the most recent presidential election, the People Power Party candidate received between 40% and 50% of the vote in these areas, but they remain strongholds for the party, according to political analysts. Additionally, trends in real estate prices are likely to influence the election. During the Moon Jaein administration, a surge in real estate prices led to a shift in voter sentiment in Seoul.

<Opinion Polls>

- Ace Research (commissioned by Newsis, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, conducted from December 28 to 29, using wireless phone ARS method, margin of error is ±3.5%p at a 95% confidence level)

- Metavoice-Global Research (commissioned by JTBC, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, conducted from December 29 to 30, using a combination of wireless ARS and CATI methods, margin of error is ±3.5%p at a 95% confidence level)

- Korea Research (commissioned by MBC, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, conducted from December 28 to 30, using wireless phone interviews, margin of error is ±3.5%p at a 95% confidence level)

*For more details regarding the opinion polls, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.