Gongju Mayoral Race: Choi Woncheol 40.1%, Kim Jeongseop 39.1%... 1%p Margin in Neck-and-Neck Contest

Neck-and-Neck Races in Both Two-Way and Three-Way Contests
Centrist and Unaffiliated Voters Hold the Key to Victory

In a hypothetical match-up for the Gongju mayoral race in Chungnam, conducted ahead of the 9th Nationwide Local Elections scheduled for June 3, incumbent Mayor Choi Woncheol of the People Power Party is in an extremely tight race with former Mayor Kim Jeongseop of the Democratic Party of Korea, with a margin of just 1 percentage point.

Additionally, a poll released on January 5 showed that Mayor Choi is leading, within the margin of error, in a head-to-head against Im Dalhee, Chairperson of the Gongju City Council.

According to the results of a hypothetical contest between Kim Jeongseop and Choi Woncheol, conducted by polling agency Vision Korea at the request of the Gongju Journalists Association from January 1 to 2 among 524 Gongju citizens, Choi Woncheol received 40.1%, while Kim Jeongseop received 39.1%. The gap between the two candidates was only 1.0 percentage point, indicating a neck-and-neck race. Respondents who answered "No preferred candidate" accounted for 13.5%, while "Don't know" responses made up 7.3%.

As a result, analysts point out that the choices of centrist and unaffiliated voters will be a key variable.

Mayor Choi showed a strong lead among People Power Party supporters (83.2%) and respondents with conservative tendencies (72.2%), as well as among those in their 30s, those aged 60 and above, and voters in the second electoral district.

Former Mayor Kim Jeongseop showed a strong lead among Democratic Party supporters (67.2%), respondents with progressive tendencies (67.4%), those in their 40s and 50s, and among students.

Notably, among centrist respondents, Kim Jeongseop (38.8%) and Choi Woncheol (38.2%) were in an extremely close race within the margin of error, making this group a decisive factor. By gender, Mayor Choi led among men, while former Mayor Kim led among women.

In a hypothetical match-up between Im Dalhee, Chairperson of the Gongju City Council, and Mayor Choi Woncheol, Mayor Choi received 42.4%, while Chairperson Im received 36.5%. The difference of 5.9 percentage points still falls within the survey's margin of error (±4.1 percentage points), indicating a close race. "No preferred candidate" accounted for 14.9%, and "Don't know" responses made up 6.3%.

Mayor Choi held a lead among conservative and People Power Party supporters, as well as older voters, while Chairperson Im was clearly favored by progressive and Democratic Party supporters, as well as women in their 20s and 30s.

However, among centrist voters, candidate Choi held a slight lead.

This poll was conducted using 84.9% mobile virtual numbers and 15.1% landline RDD, targeting 524 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Gongju, Chungnam. The survey was carried out using a 100% ARS (automated response system) method, with a response rate of 7.1% and a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting was applied by age, gender, and region, based on resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of November 2025.

Details of the poll cited in this article can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.