[June 3 Local Elections] Local Elections One Year After the Presidential Race... Will the Ruling Party Premium Hold?

Declining Regionalism Accelerates Nationwide Swing Voting
Early-Term Midterm Election Favors the Ruling Party
Competitive Race in Honam and Chungcheong Integration as Key Variables

Editor's Note
The 9th Nationwide Local Elections, scheduled for June 3, will take place exactly one year after the presidential election held on the same date last year. This means that another nationwide election will be held exactly one year after the early presidential election. As a midterm evaluation held at the beginning of the presidential term, this election carries complex characteristics, and its outcome will determine the driving force of the Lee Jaemyung administration. It could also become a turning point in the power structure of local governments, where the opposition holds a majority. We will examine the key points to watch in the June 3 local elections and analyze each of the 17 metropolitan mayoral races across the country. <Editor's Note>

On January 5, The Asia Business Daily analyzed the 6th, 7th, and 8th local elections held under the 17 metropolitan city and provincial system. The results showed that, except for Honam (Gwangju, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam) and TK (Daegu, Gyeongbuk), all regions exhibited so-called swing-vote characteristics. The outcome depended on which party was in power. This means that not only the Seoul metropolitan area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon) but also the Chungcheong region (Daejeon, Sejong, Chungbuk, Chungnam), Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam, Gangwon, and Jeju are not strongholds for any particular political party.

◆Key Point ① 'Wind Election'

Among all past local elections, the 6th local elections held in 2014 produced the closest results to a tie. At that time, the New Politics Alliance for Democracy, predecessor to the Democratic Party, won nine metropolitan mayoral races. Meanwhile, the Saenuri Party, predecessor to the People Power Party, won eight. Both parties experienced political achievements and regrets in this election.

In subsequent elections, the ruling party emerged as the winner of the local elections. The Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the 7th local elections in 2018, while the People Power Party did so in the 8th local elections in 2022. The commonality between these two elections is that they were held shortly after a new government was launched following a presidential victory. In particular, the 2022 local elections were held less than a month after the new president took office. The so-called “ruling party premium” was strongly at play.

The 7th local elections were influenced by the political advantage of the inter-Korean summit and the high approval ratings of then-President Moon Jae-in. The Democratic Party swept 14 metropolitan mayoral positions. The main opposition Liberty Korea Party (predecessor to the People Power Party) won two in TK, and independent candidate Won Heeryong won in Jeju. Conversely, the 8th local elections, held immediately after the new president’s inauguration, saw the People Power Party sweep 12 metropolitan mayoral seats, while the Democratic Party retained only five-Gyeonggi, Honam, and Jeju.

◆Key Point ② 'Early-Term Midterm Election'

Local elections are fundamentally nationwide elections. Along with the general elections, they serve as a midterm evaluation of national administration. What is interesting about the 9th local elections is that they will be held just one year after the president’s inauguration-a relatively early point in the term. The fact that the administration’s momentum is still strong at this time is also a variable. Particularly notable is that, due to the financial structure of local governments, the extent of central government support can significantly affect regional development. This is an advantage for the ruling party.

The 2014 local elections were held in the aftermath of the Sewol ferry disaster. Despite the political responsibility being raised against the ruling party, the Saenuri Party managed to retain Gyeonggi and Incheon. This outcome proved the political logic that early-term local elections favor the ruling party. The party’s careful attention to candidate nominations also influenced the results. A key official who led the Saenuri Party’s nominations stated, “We mobilized all core resources, including potential presidential contenders, for the local elections.”

◆Key Point ③ 'A Changed Election Equation'

The changing dynamics of political strongholds are also a key point to watch. In local elections, the traditional equation that Busan and Gyeongnam are strongholds for the People Power Party and Honam is a stronghold for the Democratic Party does not always hold true.

In this local election, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party is emerging as a dark horse in Honam. It is no longer an era where simply receiving the Democratic Party’s nomination guarantees victory. Last year, the leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party toured the Honam region, seeking support through supreme council meetings and policy discussions. Having entered the National Assembly as the third-largest party in the last general election, the Innovation Party is advocating the so-called “catfish theory,” arguing that Honam politics should not be left solely to the Democratic Party. Democratic Party leader Jeong Cheongrae is also responding through the Honam Special Committee, making the competitive landscape in Honam noteworthy.

In Busan and Gyeongnam, the Saenuri Party is also facing a tough defense. In the Democratic Party, three-term lawmaker Jeon Jaesoo is emerging as a strong candidate in Busan, while Kim Kyungsoo, Chairman of the Committee for the Era of Local Autonomy (ministerial level) and former governor, is a leading candidate in Gyeongnam. Meanwhile, tight polls continue between these candidates and the incumbent metropolitan mayors from the People Power Party.

The discussion of administrative integration between Chungnam and Daejeon is another major variable in the election landscape. Initially, the integration issue was led by the People Power Party, but as President Lee intervened, the Democratic Party has taken the lead. The Democratic Party plans to form a “Special Committee for the Integration of Daejeon and Chungnam and the Development of the Chungcheong Region,” propose related legislation in February, and process it in March. Whether the integration discussion can actually gain support from local residents is expected to significantly affect the voting trends in the Chungcheong region.

◆Key Point ④ Early Trends for the Ruling and Opposition Parties

The ruling and opposition parties’ internal primaries for the local elections will not begin in earnest until March. Although declarations to run are being made, it is still largely a preliminary phase. While there are still many variables in the outlook for both parties, recent polling trends suggest a slight advantage for the ruling party.

According to a New Year’s poll released by KBS on January 1 (conducted by KSTAT Research from December 29 to 31, 2025, with 1,022 respondents aged 18 or older nationwide, using wireless telephone interviews; margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, response rate 14.2%), 33% of respondents said they supported the Democratic Party candidate. Support for the People Power Party candidate was 23%, the Innovation Party 2%, the Reform New Party 2%, and the Progressive Party 1%. 38% either did not respond or had no preferred candidate. While Democratic Party candidates led in most regions, in TK, support for the People Power Party candidate was 34%, ahead of the Democratic Party candidate’s 22%. In Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, both parties were tied at 28%. For more details on the poll, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. However, since there is a large proportion of undecided voters and variables such as candidate competitiveness in addition to party support, the actual situation in each region may differ.

◆Key Point ⑤ Local Election Schedule

This year’s local election constituencies will be finalized based on population as of January 15. Preliminary candidate registration for city/provincial governors and education superintendents begins on February 3. Prospective candidates for local councilors and district/city mayors can register from February 20, and those for county councilors and county heads from March 22. Official candidate registration will take place over two days, May 14 and 15. The official campaign period begins six days after the close of candidate registration, on May 21. Early voting will be held on May 29 (Friday) and 30 (Saturday), five days before the election, and the main voting will take place on June 3. Voting will be open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.