Tesla Reveals Analysts' Average Q4 Forecast
15% Decrease Compared to Same Period Last Year
Annual Sales Expected to Decline for Second Consecutive Year
Tesla has unusually released its vehicle delivery forecast, which falls short of market expectations. This move is considered exceptional, given that the company previously shared average sales forecasts observed by analysts only with investors and select parties.
According to the analysts' forecasts posted on Tesla's official website on December 30 (local time), the average number of vehicles expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter is 422,850. This represents a 15% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is also lower than the average estimate compiled by Bloomberg, which was 440,907 units.
Until now, Tesla had shared its sales forecasts only with analysts and investors. This is the first time the company has officially shared its sales outlook with the general public. Gary Black, co-founder of the investment advisory firm Future Fund Advisors, pointed out on X (formerly Twitter), "Tesla wanted to publicize the consensus view agreed upon with investors as widely as possible," adding, "This is highly unusual."
Tesla’s annual sales volume is also expected to remain at 1.6 million units this year. This marks a decline for the second consecutive year, representing a decrease of more than 8% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, sales forecasts for the next three years are also lower than the figures compiled by Bloomberg.
Tesla’s sales decline began at the start of the year. This was due to the restructuring of production lines at factories worldwide to redesign the company’s most popular Model Y. This period also coincided with CEO Elon Musk’s tenure as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration, which was marked by various controversies.
The sluggish sales recovered in the third quarter. Ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, Tesla’s electric vehicle deliveries in the third quarter reached an all-time high.
Meanwhile, Tesla closed at $459.35 on the day, down 1.1% from the previous trading session. It had also plunged 3.3% in the previous session.
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