"Shortage Projected at Minimum 4,923 to Maximum 11,136 Doctors by 2040"
How did the estimation results come about, projecting that by 2040, South Korea could face a shortage of more than 11,000 doctors?
Kim Taehyun, Chairman of the Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Forecasting Committee, is announcing the results of the 12th Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Forecasting Committee meeting at the Government Seoul Office in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on the 30th. Photo by Yonhap News
The Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee (the Committee) stated on the 30th that these projections go beyond simple forecasts. The results were calculated using validated statistical models based on currently observable data and consensus-based assumptions, such as changes in the population structure, historical patterns of healthcare utilization, and the potential for future technological advancements.
To estimate the demand for doctors, the Committee first calculated the 'total volume of healthcare utilization' by the public and then estimated the number of doctors required to meet that demand. For the time series analysis, they used accumulated inpatient and outpatient data from different types of medical institutions (such as tertiary hospitals and clinics) to analyze long-term trends in how often people are likely to visit hospitals in the future. The Committee explained that they used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which corrects for irregular fluctuations in the data, to improve the accuracy of the projections.
In the model reflecting demographic structure (the composition method), the Committee took into account South Korea's rapidly aging population. They assumed that current healthcare utilization patterns by gender and five-year age groups would remain unchanged, and used Statistics Korea's future population projections to estimate the total future demand for healthcare services.
For the supply of doctors, the Committee did not simply count the number of licensed physicians, but closely tracked changes in the number of 'clinical doctors' who actually see patients in the field. Using the stock-flow approach, they added the number of new doctors entering the workforce each year (based on the annual medical school admission quota of 3,058 and the national licensing exam pass rate), and subtracted those leaving due to factors such as mortality. They then multiplied this by the probability of actually working in a clinical setting to calculate the final workforce supply.
For supply estimation based on attrition rates, the Committee tracked the actual physician population over a long period to determine how many retire or leave clinical practice annually. In particular, they separated out deaths to calculate the number of pure retirees.
The Committee also stated that, to ensure the projections were not limited to simple numerical calculations, they reviewed a variety of scenarios, including: ▲ improvements in doctor productivity due to advances in medical technology such as artificial intelligence (AI), ▲ changes in the number of days doctors work, and ▲ changes in government healthcare policies.
Kim Taehyun, Chairman of the Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee, explained, "The Committee shares a common understanding that mid- to long-term workforce projections cannot fully predict future healthcare utilization patterns, technological advancements, or changes in working arrangements. We also agree that there are practical limitations in comprehensively incorporating all these factors into a single model, given the constraints of available data and methodologies. Therefore, we have taken a comprehensive approach, considering all observable variables and applicable methodologies as of now."
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