Sales Down 30% Over 20 Years in Japan
Distrust in Winning Odds and Departure of Young Buyers to Blame
Although the top prize for Japanese lotteries has now exceeded 9 billion yen, the number of people purchasing lottery tickets is actually declining. As a more sober understanding of the odds of winning spreads, analysts say that Japan’s lottery market, which once sparked a nationwide craze and was called a “product for buying dreams,” has now entered a prolonged slump.
In front of the Jumbo Lottery store located in Tokyo, Japan, in 2004. People are lined up in a long queue to purchase lottery tickets. Photo by Asahi Shimbun
Even with higher jackpots, little effect... Sales drop by 30%
According to the Asahi Shimbun on December 28, lottery sales in Japan peaked at 1.1 trillion yen (about 10.15 trillion won) in fiscal year 2005, but have since continued to decline, falling to about 760 billion yen last year. This means the market has shrunk by nearly 30% over the past two decades. The year-end “Jumbo Lottery,” which is sold on a large scale every year, has also suffered from sluggish sales without exception.
Authorities have steadily increased the jackpot to make lotteries more attractive. In 2005, the maximum prize for first place and the adjacent numbers combined was 300 million yen (about 2.77 billion won), but this rose to 600 million yen, then 700 million yen, and now stands at 1 billion yen (about 9.23 billion won). However, these increases only led to a temporary boost in sales, failing to bring about a sustained recovery in the long term.
"It doesn't feel like I'll win"... Japanese youth turn away
Experts point to the departure of younger generations as a key reason for the lottery’s decline. According to a survey conducted last year by the Japan Lottery Association, only 20% of lottery buyers were in their 30s or younger, while those aged 60 and above accounted for over 40%. In the mid-2000s, when sales peaked, people in their 30s or younger made up 40% of buyers, but as new demand dried up, the customer base has aged significantly.
The most common reason for buying lottery tickets was “expectation of winning a prize,” but the main reason for not buying was “because the odds of winning are low.” Even though the first prize now exceeds 700 million yen, consumers are widely aware that the odds of a single 300-yen (about 2,770 won) ticket winning first prize are only about one in 20 million. The media reported that “the reality of the odds is outweighing the dream of a huge jackpot,” and that this trend is causing sluggish sales for this year’s year-end Jumbo Lottery as well.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
