Rising Rice Prices Toward Year-End... Egg Prices Show No Sign of Falling

Rice Prices Up Over 30% From Early This Year
No Sign of Egg Prices Falling From Their Peak

This year, among major agricultural and livestock products, rice and eggs have experienced the most significant price increases. Rice prices saw a sharp rise in the second half of the year, while egg prices remained high throughout the year, showing little sign of decline. With the prices of staple foods and essential proteins rising simultaneously, analysts note that consumers are feeling a heavier burden from inflation.

According to the National Data Office and related industries on December 27, the price of rice (20kg) in Seoul started at 57,651 won in December last year and slightly decreased to 55,769 won in January this year. From February to June, prices remained relatively stable, ranging between 56,000 and 57,000 won. However, the situation changed after July. In July and August, rice prices exceeded the 60,000 won mark, reaching 61,997 won, then rose to 64,074 won in September, 71,366 won in October, and 73,527 won in November. Compared to the low point in January, this represents an increase of over 30%.

Typically, rice prices decline during the harvest season as supply increases. However, this year, prices remained higher than usual even during the harvest period. Industry experts point to the government's failure in demand forecasting as the cause of this phenomenon. When rice prices plummeted in October last year and surplus production was expected to reach 128,000 tons, the government isolated 260,000 tons from the market. However, the final confirmed surplus was only 56,000 tons, less than half the initial estimate. As a result, the volume isolated from the market was excessive compared to actual supply conditions.

According to the "2025 Rice Production Survey Results," this year's rice production stands at 3,539,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons (1.3%) compared to last year's 3,585,000 tons. Rice production has been declining for four consecutive years since 2022. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs estimates that this year's rice production exceeds the expected consumption (3,409,000 tons) by more than 130,000 tons. However, since the "Rice Harvest Season Measures" in October last year estimated a surplus of 165,000 tons and isolated 100,000 tons, it is projected that approximately 30,000 tons will actually be oversupplied to the market.

Egg prices have also shown an upward trend. The price of eggs (10 pieces) was 3,625 won in December last year and remained relatively unchanged at 3,617 won in January this year, but began to rise to 3,828 won in February and 4,104 won in March. Prices continued to climb, reaching 4,201 won in April and 4,224 won in May and June, and then stabilized at high levels in the second half of the year. In July and August, prices were 4,529 won, rising to 4,564 won in September, 4,609 won in October, and 4,615 won in November. This represents an increase of about 27% compared to the beginning of the year.

The problem is that there are no signs of prices falling. According to the Livestock Products Quality Assessment Service's distribution information, as of December 25, the price of eggs (10 pieces) in Seoul stood at 4,298 won. The average consumer price for a tray (30 pieces) exceeded 7,000 won on December 22 and reached 7,010 won on December 23. This is 8.3% higher than the average price (6,471 won). Although the price slightly dropped to the 6,800 won range on December 25, consumer burden remains high.

Concerns about supply instability continue. This winter, there have been 11 cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) outbreaks at laying hen farms, five more than during the same period last year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, about 3 million laying hens have been culled due to AI this winter. Given that the daily nationwide egg production is about 50 million, this means that 3-4% of the total supply has been reduced.

Prices of meat products such as beef, pork, and chicken have shown relatively moderate increases. The price of beef (100g) hovered in the low to mid-13,000 won range throughout the year, surpassing 15,000 won in October and November. Pork (100g) rose from the high 2,000 won range to the mid-3,000 won range, while chicken (per bird) remained steady in the high 8,000 won range without significant fluctuations.

Vegetable prices were highly volatile due to seasonal factors. The price of napa cabbage (per head) surged to the 7,000 won range at the beginning of the year, dropped to the 5,000 won range in the summer, but jumped again to 8,445 won in September. Prices of radishes and potatoes also fluctuated according to seasonal changes.