[Good Morning Market] KOSPI Expected to Open Higher on US "Santa Rally" Momentum... Dividend Demand Also Anticipated

Micron's Rally Creates Favorable Conditions for Semiconductor Stocks

On December 26, the Korean stock market is expected to open higher, buoyed by the "Santa Rally" from the United States. In particular, the sharp rise of Micron in the New York stock market overnight, hitting an all-time high, is anticipated to create a favorable environment for major domestic semiconductor stocks.

On December 24 (local time) in the New York stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which focuses on blue-chip stocks, closed at 48,731.16, up 288.75 points (0.60%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index rose by 22.26 points (0.32%) to close at 6,932.05, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index finished up 51.46 points (0.22%) at 23,613.31. The Russell 2000 index, which focuses on small and mid-cap stocks, also climbed by 0.27%. On this day, the market closed early at 1 p.m. ahead of the Christmas holiday on December 25, resulting in generally light trading volume.

The market showed strength as the official Santa Rally season (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) began, with newly released economic indicators supporting expectations for a soft landing. The United States' third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was finalized at an annualized 4.3%, revised upward from the preliminary estimate and significantly exceeding expectations. This marks the highest growth rate in two years since the third quarter of 2023, driven by strong personal consumption and robust exports, according to analysts.

New unemployment claims also decreased to 214,000, indicating that the job market remains resilient. In addition, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit its lowest level in seven weeks, which was interpreted as a positive signal for improvements in the housing market and consumer sentiment.

By stock, Nike surged 4.64%, leading the index higher. This was attributed to renewed confidence in "responsible management" after news broke that Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased 50,000 shares of Nike (worth about 4.3 billion won) on December 22. Cook has served as an outside director at Nike since 2005. Amid favorable conditions in the memory semiconductor sector, Micron's stock price soared 3.8%, reaching an all-time high.

Today, the domestic stock market is expected to open at a level above steady, supported by the strength of the New York stock market and Micron's rally. The iM Securities Research Center analyzed, "Micron's particularly strong closing performance among semiconductor stocks is likely to act favorably on major domestic semiconductor stock prices."

Expectations for government policies to stabilize the exchange rate are also anticipated to support the domestic stock market. On December 24, immediately after the foreign exchange authorities announced tax support measures to resolve supply-demand imbalances, the won-dollar exchange rate plunged by more than 30 won, dropping to the 1,450-won range. Lee Sunghoon, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, explained, "If expectations for the currently high exchange rate level to stabilize downward are reflected, it could serve as a trigger for foreign capital inflows. It is worth noting whether the exchange rate will maintain its current level and continue to stabilize downward today."

Today is the last trading day for dividend rights in the domestic stock market, so there is expected to be a rush of demand for dividend stocks at the last minute. However, as this coincides with the reference date for major shareholder capital gains tax, there is analysis that some tax-avoidance selling may occur, which could increase volatility amid supply and demand battles.