A Series of Warnings for Bitcoin...
Theories Emerge on Entering a Prolonged Bear Market
Analysis Suggests "The Current Downturn Is Unprecedented"
As Bitcoin continues to face downward pressure without regaining its recent rebound momentum, concerns about the possibility of entering a 'prolonged bear market' are resurfacing both inside and outside the market. With a series of warnings that this trend may mark the beginning of a structural bearish phase rather than a short-term correction, more investors are calling for a defensive approach.
As of December 18, Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, which is more than 30% lower than its all-time high of approximately $126,000 recorded in October this year. With the anticipated bullish trend after the halving now broken, the market's focus is gradually shifting from finding a 'bottom' to assessing 'downside risks.'
"Similar to the Precursor of the Great Depression"...$10,000 Level Cited
According to foreign media outlets such as Bloomberg and Fintoo, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently stated, "The current situation is not just a lull, but is reminiscent of the Great Depression nearly a century ago," mentioning the possibility that Bitcoin could fall to the $10,000 level by 2026.
He analyzed that the excessive expectations and speculative demand that formed after Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 have actually created the conditions for a long-term decline. In particular, he pointed out that the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio has dropped by about 40% this year, diagnosing that "the market is already shifting from risk assets to safe assets." McGlone views the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a leading indicator of risk assets. He explained that as this ratio declines, the likelihood of broad-based pressure on risk assets increases.
"Bitcoin Could Fall to $70,000"
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Ledn, who is well-known for his accurate predictions in the cryptocurrency market, also recently stated, "The Bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 has already ended," suggesting the possibility of a further decline to the $70,000-$80,000 range.
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, he analyzed, "Bitcoin has completed a five-wave advance and has entered a corrective phase that could last at least until the end of 2026." He also noted that this is similar to past patterns, where Bitcoin peaked and then declined about 18 months after the halving.
Bloomberg: "This Downturn Is Different from the Past"
On December 16 (local time), Bloomberg also reported that "this Bitcoin downturn is different from previous ones." Unlike in the past, when major hacks or exchange collapses triggered declines, this time the annual drop is occurring without any significant incidents, which is a notable feature.
This is also interpreted as a sign that Bitcoin is no longer an independent alternative asset but is now deeply integrated into the global risk asset flow. During uptrends, leverage and expectations drove prices higher, but during downturns, this means structural corrections could be prolonged.
"Caution Against Aggressive Buying at Low Prices"
Experts commonly emphasize that "this is a period where risk management is more important than betting on market direction." This is because volatility is likely to persist until there is clarity on interest rate policies, global economic trends, and whether risk appetite will recover. Experts agree that "a defensive approach is more reasonable than trying to buy the dip at this time."
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