"This Downturn Is Different from the Past...Similar to Pre-Great Depression Signs" Experts Warn of Bitcoin

A Series of Warnings for Bitcoin...
Theories Emerge on Entering a Prolonged Bear Market
Analysis Suggests "The Current Downturn Is Unprecedented"

As Bitcoin continues to face downward pressure without regaining its recent rebound momentum, concerns about the possibility of entering a 'prolonged bear market' are resurfacing both inside and outside the market. With a series of warnings that this trend may mark the beginning of a structural bearish phase rather than a short-term correction, more investors are calling for a defensive approach.

Bitcoin stock photo. The Asia Business Daily DB

As of December 18, Bitcoin is trading at around $86,000, which is more than 30% lower than its all-time high of approximately $126,000 recorded in October of this year. As the bullish trend anticipated after the halving has faded, the market's focus is gradually shifting from finding a 'bottom' to concerns over 'downside risk.'

"Similar to Pre-Great Depression Signs"...$10,000 Cited

According to foreign media outlets such as Bloomberg and Fintoo, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently stated, "The current situation is not just a lull, but is reminiscent of the Great Depression nearly a century ago," mentioning the possibility that Bitcoin could fall to the $10,000 level by 2026.

He analyzed that the excessive expectations and speculative demand that formed after Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 have actually created the conditions for a long-term decline. In particular, he pointed out that the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio has dropped by about 40% this year, diagnosing that "the market is already shifting from risk assets to safe assets." McGlone sees the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a leading indicator of risk assets. He explained that as this ratio declines, the likelihood of overall risk assets coming under pressure increases.

Bitcoin stock photo. Image Today

"Bitcoin Could Fall to $70,000"

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Ledn, who is well known for his accurate predictions of the cryptocurrency market, also recently stated, "The Bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 has already ended," suggesting the possibility of a further decline to the $70,000-$80,000 range.

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, he analyzed, "Bitcoin has completed its five-wave rise and has entered a correction phase that could last at least until the end of 2026." He also noted that this is similar to past patterns, where Bitcoin peaked and then declined about 18 months after the halving.

Bitcoin stock photo. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Bloomberg: "This Downturn Is Different from the Past"

On December 16 (local time), Bloomberg also published an analysis stating, "This Bitcoin downturn is different from previous ones." In the past, major hacks or exchange collapses triggered declines, but this time, the annual drop is occurring without any particular incidents.

This is interpreted as a sign that Bitcoin is no longer an independent alternative asset but has become deeply embedded in the global risk asset flow. While leverage and expectations drove prices up during the bull market, in a downturn, structural adjustments may be prolonged to the same extent.

Reference photo to aid understanding of the article. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News Agency

"Caution Against Aggressive Bottom-Fishing"

Experts commonly emphasize that "this is a period where risk management is more important than betting on a specific direction." They point out that volatility is likely to continue until there is clarity on interest rate policies, global economic trends, and a recovery in risk asset appetite. Experts agree that "a defensive approach is more reasonable than trying to buy at the bottom right now."