Nomura Securities: "Semiconductor Supercycle... KOSPI Expected to Reach 5,000 Next Year"

Nomura Securities has set its KOSPI outlook for next year at around 5,000. The company analyzed that the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) facility investment, the memory semiconductor supercycle, and corporate governance reforms will all contribute to strengthening the stock market.

Park Seyoung, Executive Director at Nomura Securities, made this statement during a media briefing held at the Finance Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, on December 16.

He predicted that between 2026 and 2027, there will be a significant increase in AI data centers worldwide due to concentrated investments by big tech companies. He added, "Not only high bandwidth memory (HBM), but also energy storage system (ESS) batteries, transformers, power equipment, and cooling systems will see an overall boost in their supply chains, which will be positive for the stock market."

He identified semiconductors, defense, healthcare, power equipment, and nuclear energy as promising sectors. Executive Director Jeon Changwon analyzed, "For the next two years, memory demand will be strong and prices will be high, so the profitability of memory semiconductors is likely to surpass that of the 2017-2018 supercycle."

Nomura Securities also predicted that the won-dollar exchange rate will stabilize and fall to 1,380 won by the end of next year.

Economist Park Jungwoo stated, "The government is currently making various policy efforts targeting exporters, the National Pension Service, and households as economic agents. In addition, since the United States is expected to cut interest rates about two more times next year, the dollar is also likely to remain weak throughout the year."

He added, "If the inclusion in the World Government Bond Index (WGBI) begins next year, and the government continues to push for inclusion in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index, along with improvements in domestic corporate governance, a solid profit structure for semiconductors, and increased trust in the domestic market from individuals, the exchange rate should stabilize."

Regarding interest rates, he predicted that the current freeze would continue. However, he analyzed, "If the Bank of Korea feels pressure to raise rates, it would be due to inflation."

He continued, "Otherwise, the rate freeze is likely to continue next year, and only after economic growth is firmly established, possibly after 2027, will the rate hike cycle be considered."