[Global Focus] The End of Peace?... A New Global Arms Race Engulfs the World

"Europe May Face Division, Not Peace, After the War"
Taiwan: "Peace Comes from Strength"... Defense Budget to Increase
A Multipolar World... Is the 'Long Peace' at Risk?

Global defense industry sales have reached an all-time high, and the trend toward rearmament is intensifying across Europe and Asia. As global security concerns grow due to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and the US-China power struggle, the world appears to be re-entering an era dominated by "the logic of power." Amid these developments, there are growing concerns that the international community may be approaching the end of the long period of peace that has lasted for nearly 80 years since World War II.

Record-High Arms Purchases... Countries Worldwide Preparing for a 'Wartime System'

On December 1 (local time), the Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) announced that the combined sales of the world's top 100 defense companies reached a record $679 billion last year, up 5.9% from the previous year. By country, the share of total sales was as follows: United States (49%), China (13%), United Kingdom (7.7%), Russia (4.6%), France (3.8%), Italy (2.5%), Israel (2.4%), Germany (2.2%), and South Korea (2.1%).

SIPRI analyzed that, for the first time since 2018, weapons-related sales increased among the world's top five defense companies. This was attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict, and the arms race triggered by geopolitical tensions around the globe. Jade Giberto Ricard, a researcher in SIPRI's Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program, stated, "In particular, European defense companies are building new factories or expanding production lines to meet the surging demand for weapons."

SIPRI also pointed out that, despite growing international criticism of Israel's military actions in Gaza, demand for Israeli-made weapons remains high. Many countries have continued to place new orders with Israeli defense companies. In this context, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amid heightened security concerns and US President Donald Trump's strong demands for increased defense spending, Europe is focusing on Israeli weapons that have proven themselves in actual combat. The report added that, with Russia recently flying drones over the airspace of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states in Europe, European countries are feeling an urgent need to strengthen their security measures.

As security concerns rise in Europe due to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and Russia's repeated provocations, there are warnings that peace may not necessarily follow the disappearance of the common threat of war-instead, internal divisions could intensify. The Economist noted, "A future peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would be an immense relief for Europe, but it could also lead to uncomfortable outcomes. So far, the war has served as a 'glue' uniting Europe, but once it ends, there is a risk of 'disintegration' as unity weakens."

The Economist highlighted the difference in security perceptions between Eastern and Western Europe as the main factor that could divide Europe after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. Eastern European countries, such as the Baltic states and Finland, which border Russia directly, harbor deep anxieties about the possibility of another Russian attack. In contrast, Western European countries like Germany and France may begin discussions about gradually normalizing relations with Russia for economic reasons. In particular, German companies may advocate for the partial reintroduction of Russian gas due to energy prices, a move that could be seen by countries like Poland and Estonia as a dangerous act of empowering Russia once again.

Additionally, conflicts over who will bear the astronomical costs of rebuilding Ukraine, and the perception gap regarding the United States-which recently strongly criticized Europe in its new National Security Strategy (NSS)-are coming to the fore, potentially causing cracks in European politics and security, according to The Economist.

Rising Chinese Military Power Heightens Anxiety in Northeast Asia

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen inspected the reserve forces training ground in Yilan County, Taiwan, on the 2nd (local time). Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

The arms race fueled by heightened military tensions is also continuing in Asia. According to Taiwanese media such as Liberty Times, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te inspected reserve forces training in Yilan County, northeastern Taiwan, on December 2, stating, "Peace must rely on strength, not negotiation." Previously, in an op-ed for The Washington Post last month, President Lai warned that China's military buildup and provocations are destabilizing regional peace and announced plans to allocate an additional $40 billion for defense in 2026.

Meanwhile, Japan is accelerating efforts to abolish certain regulations that have restricted weapons exports, backed by strong public support for strengthening its defense capabilities amid rising tensions in Northeast Asia. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun on December 2, the Japanese government and ruling party are coordinating a plan to abolish by spring 2026 the rule that allows the export of finished defense equipment only for five specific purposes: rescue, transport, vigilance, surveillance, and minesweeping. Industry experts predict that if these restrictions are lifted, Japan will be able to export a broader range of equipment, including those with high lethality.

These moves by Taiwan and Japan are seen as a response to the widespread anxiety in the region caused by China's rising military power. In a public opinion survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun and Waseda University between September and October, 65% of respondents said they believe China is likely to invade Taiwan in the future.

Cracks in the 'Long Peace'... US Decline and the Rise of a Multipolar System

On September 3rd (local time), soldiers marched during the 80th anniversary Victory Day parade of World War II held in Beijing, China. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

As conflicts and rearmament trends continue across Europe, Asia, the Western Hemisphere, the Middle East, and Africa, some analysts suggest that the era of peace enjoyed by humanity for decades may be coming to an end. Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University and former US Assistant Secretary of Defense during the Clinton administration, noted that the absence of major power wars for about 80 years since the end of World War II was an extraordinary achievement in human history. However, he warned that this foundation is now being shaken in many places. He argued that the "long peace" maintained by the international community through deterrence to avoid mutual assured destruction (MAD) during the Cold War and the nuclear non-proliferation regime centered on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) can no longer be guaranteed to continue.

Professor Allison explained, "Immediately after World War II, the United States accounted for half of the world's gross domestic product (GDP), but by the end of the Cold War, its share had fallen to a quarter. Today, it is only one-seventh." He continued, "Amid these changes, a 'multipolar system' has emerged, in which multiple countries can act independently within their spheres of influence." He warned, "These countries no longer need the permission of great powers or fear sanctions. The fact that each has reached a comparable level increases the possibility of war."

There are also observations that the traditional US-centered order and alliance structure are being shaken, leading to a multi-layered transformation of geopolitics. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist, wrote, "Conflicts between nations and the breakup of Cold War alliances have led to complex changes in the overall geopolitical landscape. For example, it is no coincidence that President Trump spent considerable time and energy bringing together and persuading countries, militaries, and militias with differing interests to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. He may have to spend all his remaining time in office striving for 'peace.'"

He added, "The truth that leaders of countries including the US, China, and Russia have not yet fully understood is that humanity, no matter which direction it takes, will move 'together.' Now, we are entering an era in which governance, innovation, cooperation, and coexistence on a global scale are essential for prosperity."