Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
Named Top Semiconductor Picks for 2026
On December 10, KB Securities stated that the shortage of DRAM supply is far more severe than the market had anticipated, forecasting a sharp price increase next year. Accordingly, the firm named Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as its top semiconductor picks for 2026.
Kim Dongwon, a researcher at KB Securities, explained, "Currently, in the fourth quarter, the DRAM demand fulfillment rate among clients is only about 60%." He added, "In particular, the demand fulfillment rate for server DRAM remains below 50% in the fourth quarter, indicating that the DRAM market is facing an unprecedented supply shortage."
Kim predicted, "Although global DRAM production capacity is expected to increase by 7.7% year-on-year next year, most of this expansion will be focused on HBM, making it insufficient to resolve the shortage of general-purpose DRAM." He further forecasted, "In 2026, the supply growth rate for server DRAM will be only about half of the demand, so the severe supply shortage and steep price increases are expected to continue next year."
Kim cited several reasons: ▲ The AI ecosystem, previously centered on Nvidia, is now diversifying to include Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and AMD, leading to a more than 50% year-on-year increase in HBM adoption by big tech companies; ▲ The expansion of AI inference is driving the proliferation of AI application services among North American cloud providers, which is simultaneously causing a sharp rise in server DRAM demand due to increased server data processing volumes.
According to market research firm TrendForce, the price of HBM4, which is expected to begin mass production between February and March 2026, is anticipated to carry a premium of 28% to 58% over HBM3E, depending on the speed and performance offered by each supplier.
Kim explained, "The HBM market size in 2026 is projected to increase by 23% year-on-year to 69 trillion won, with HBM4 accounting for 55% and HBM3E for 45% of the market by value. From the third quarter of next year, HBM4 is expected to rapidly absorb demand from HBM3E."
KB Securities presented Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as the top semiconductor picks for 2026. Kim stated, "Next year, the combined DRAM market share of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is expected to exceed 75%, and their combined HBM market share is projected to surpass 85%, making them the biggest beneficiaries of the worsening DRAM supply shortage."
He added, "Samsung Electronics, which has secured a speed advantage for HBM4 by applying 1c DRAM and 4nm logic die, is expected to see a pivotal inflection point in corporate valuation as big tech companies, including Nvidia, approve the quality of its HBM4. This will serve as a catalyst for a rise in its stock price."
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