Ukraine Ceasefire Proposal Resumes: The Biggest Obstacle Is...Putin's Advantage of Time [Current Affairs Show]

Trump and Zelensky Take Proactive Stance in Ceasefire Talks
Russia Gains Advantage from Delays, Remains the Biggest Obstacle

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: So Jongseop, Political Specialist

■ Director: Lee Kyungdo, Producer

■ Guest: Lee Hyunwoo, Reporter

The Ukraine war ceasefire negotiations, which had been facing difficulties after the cancellation of the second summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, are now at a new turning point. President Trump has publicly expressed optimism, and the Ukrainian government is also actively engaging, cautiously raising the possibility of a breakthrough. However, there are concerns that President Putin and Russia, who still have plenty of time on their side, will remain the biggest obstacles in future negotiations.

The U.S. proposes 28-point plan, coordinates with Ukraine...Criticism that it favors Russia

AFP Yonhap News

The core of the 28-point ceasefire proposal newly put forward by the United States is the conclusion of a mutual non-aggression pact. The fact that Ukraine is included as a formal negotiating party in this non-aggression treaty is being highlighted as a positive aspect. However, the proposal explicitly states that Ukraine cannot join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and includes a condition that no NATO troops will be stationed in Ukraine after the war.

Additionally, it is reported that the plan would use approximately 100 billion dollars (about 147 trillion won) of Russian assets frozen overseas due to sanctions for Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. In exchange, Russia would effectively have its current occupied territories in Ukraine recognized as ‘de facto controlled territory.’ The Ukrainian military was initially to be reduced from about 900,000 to 600,000 troops, but during negotiations, this was adjusted to around 800,000. The plan also includes establishing a demilitarized zone along the border with Russia.

Due to this structure, there is considerable criticism both within and outside Ukraine and Europe that the proposed ceasefire is excessively favorable to Russia. Russia would have its occupied territories effectively recognized as its own in return for giving up frozen assets, while Ukraine would not only be blocked from joining NATO but also face restrictions on its military defense capabilities.

Trump and Zelensky, under political pressure, more proactive in negotiations than before

AP Yonhap News

Nevertheless, President Trump’s strong push for this plan is driven by political calculations. During his election campaign, he pledged to “end the Ukraine war within 24 hours if elected,” but has failed to achieve a ceasefire for more than ten months. Amid recent heavy defeats in various elections and moves in the U.S. House of Representatives to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes, his standing within the Republican Party is also being shaken. As such, a Ukraine war ceasefire is being regarded as a ‘decisive achievement’ for domestic politics.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in a similar situation. While he previously strongly opposed recognizing Russian-occupied territories, he has recently become more proactive about the ceasefire proposal. His approval ratings have plummeted following allegations that a close aide attempted to create a 100 million dollar slush fund from the state nuclear power company, and he also faces the political burden of having to hold a long-delayed presidential election within 100 days of a ceasefire being reached.

Moreover, there is a strong sense of crisis in Ukraine that it can no longer endure the war. With most adult men being rotated to the front lines, the intervals between military service and everyday life are becoming increasingly shorter. If the ceasefire fails, the war will enter its fifth year, putting not only President Zelensky’s re-election but his entire political career at risk.

The biggest sticking point in the ceasefire proposal is whether to hand over Donetsk Oblast to Russia. This region is a key defensive line that the Ukrainian military has fortified over the past four years. Ukrainian forces control more than 25% of the area, and there are serious concerns that surrendering it to Russia could create a gap in the defense of the capital, Kyiv. Some warn that if eastern Ukraine becomes nearly demilitarized, the defensive shield would essentially disappear if Russia launches a renewed offensive.

Putin benefits from delay...The biggest obstacle to a ceasefire

AP Yonhap News

While opinions are divided about the outcome of these negotiations, most observers believe a complete breakdown is unlikely. With Ukraine’s warfighting capacity nearing its limit and U.S. military aid to Ukraine expected to end by year’s end, another failed negotiation could make it difficult even to maintain the current front lines.

The prevailing analysis is that President Putin’s willingness to agree to a ceasefire is the biggest variable. With no term limits or strong rivals, President Putin is seen as watching the negotiations from a relatively relaxed position. However, considering the international sanctions joined by multiple countries and Russia’s heavy reliance on oil revenues, it is expected that Russia will ultimately have to weigh the pros and cons between the release of frozen assets and the recognition of occupied territories before deciding whether to accept the ceasefire proposal.

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, the world is watching to see whether these negotiations will lead to a peaceful end to the conflict, with the complex diplomatic maneuvering among Trump, Zelensky, and Putin at the center of global attention.