KIDA 2025 North Korean Military Forum
It has been projected that North Korea could possess up to 400 nuclear weapons by 2040.
On November 26, Lee Sangkyu, Director of the Nuclear Security Research Office at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), made this statement at the '2025 North Korean Military Forum' hosted by KIDA at the Defense Convention in Yongsan-gu, Seoul. He estimated that North Korea currently possesses up to 150 nuclear warheads.
According to Director Lee’s independent analysis, as of this year, North Korea’s total estimated number of nuclear weapons stands between 127 and 150. This figure is two to three times higher than the estimated stockpiles of about 50 to 90 warheads reported by international organizations such as the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Specifically, he estimated that North Korea possesses between 115 and 131 uranium-based warheads and between 15 and 19 plutonium-based warheads.
Director Lee further projected that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal could reach a maximum of 243 warheads by 2030 and 429 warheads by 2040.
Meanwhile, regarding North Korea’s development of nuclear-powered submarines, Director Lee predicted that it would take more than 10 additional years to develop a small reactor with a specific enrichment level (20%) suitable for submarine deployment. He also noted that Russia, which has recently strengthened cooperation with North Korea, may provide North Korea with the technology, materials, and other support necessary to design and build 5,000 to 6,000-ton class submarines.
Director Lee stated, "In order for South Korea to effectively leverage the deterrence effect of the newly proposed three-axis conventional strike system, it must operate the system in an integrated manner," adding, "A decision-making system must be established to ensure accurate situational awareness and prompt decision-making."
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