Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hit Record High... Goal to Limit Warming to 1.5 Degrees May Fail

Global Carbon Project Releases Annual Report

This year, global greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, prompting warnings that the Earth's surface temperature could rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international organization established to scientifically analyze the state of global warming, released this analysis in its annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) report on November 12 (local time).

The research team observed that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal are expected to reach 38.1 billion tons this year, an increase of 1.1% compared to last year. This is the highest level ever recorded.

To keep the rise in global temperature within 1.5 degrees Celsius, the total amount of carbon dioxide that humanity can emit in the future is estimated at 1,700 million tons. If emissions continue to increase at the current rate, this entire allowance could be exhausted in just four years.

If this trend continues, the increase in global average temperature compared to pre-industrial levels could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. This is one of the key targets set during the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which was joined by countries worldwide. The researchers who authored the report pointed out, "Achieving the goal of limiting the temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius is virtually impossible."

The increase in greenhouse gas emissions appears to have been significantly influenced by the reversal to an upward trend in carbon dioxide emissions in both the United States and the European Union (EU).

In particular, data centers-often referred to as "power-hungry giants" due to their massive electricity consumption-are cited as one of the main culprits. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on this day that investment in data centers is expected to reach $580 billion in 2025. This surpasses the global oil supply investment for the same year, which is projected at $540 billion. The global boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is also driving continued demand for data center construction.

China, the world's largest carbon emitter, has seen its fossil fuel usage stagnate this year. However, analysts say it is difficult to conclude that emissions have peaked, due to uncertainty surrounding China's policies on carbon emissions and renewable energy.

Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) in Norway stated, "The world is failing to deliver on its climate change commitments. Much greater efforts are needed."