Cutting Off Ukrainian Supply Lines and Penetrating the City Center
Putin Holds Two Cards:
Further Offensives or Leverage in Negotiations
On November 9 (local time), CNN and other outlets reported that Pokrovsk, a strategic city on the border of Donetsk region in Ukraine, where Russia has launched a full-scale offensive, is expected to fall completely soon. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, is now on the verge of achieving the "symbolic victory" he has relentlessly pursued for 21 months. Experts expect that President Putin is highly likely to use the capture of Pokrovsk as a springboard for further attacks or as leverage in negotiations with the West.
Russia Deploys Troops and Resources for Over a Year
If Pokrovsk falls, Russia will be one step closer to its goal of complete control over the Donbas region, including Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military has been attempting to capture the city for over a year and has recently succeeded in penetrating the city center.
The Ukrainian side stated that "operations to halt the advance are ongoing" and denied reports of encirclement, but CNN, citing testimonies from Ukrainian soldiers, reported that the fall is imminent. One battalion commander said, "We are almost surrounded, and the shelling in the city center does not stop," while another soldier explained, "The Russian military has deployed a large number of troops, making it difficult to respond to drones."
According to Ukrainian soldiers, Russian forces are operating in three-man squads, charging forward so that even if some are killed, the remaining members secure the position. They explained that over 100 such squads are deployed each day.
Rob Lee, Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute in the United States, called Pokrovsk a "gray zone" in an interview with Germany's Deutsche Welle (DW). He said, "Russian sabotage units are penetrating deep into the city center from the northwest and north," adding, "It is still unclear how much of the city the Russian military actually controls. Last week, there was a significant increase in Russian troop deployments in the city."
Marina Miron, Honorary Research Fellow at the Centre for Military Ethics and Department of Defence Studies at King's College London, also told DW, "The biggest problem for Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk is that Russia is cutting off key supply routes," warning, "Ukrainian forces are being resupplied by air and ground drones, but if military supplies and medical evacuations are not properly carried out, it is like sitting on a ticking time bomb."
"Symbolic Significance Outweighs Strategic Value"
A scene from drone footage shot on the 1st (local time) in Pokrovsk, Ukraine. Photo by AP Yonhap News Agency
Experts view the battle for the devastated city of Pokrovsk as one with greater symbolic significance than strategic value. George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analyzed, "The Russian military has achieved its main objective, so the practical benefits of further occupation are limited."
Pokrovsk, which has served as a logistics hub for the entire Donetsk region, saw its road and rail networks destroyed by Russia's siege and drone attacks this summer. As a result, Ukraine had to switch to alternative supply routes.
CNN predicted that Pokrovsk will become the largest city seized by Russian forces since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023. The population, which was 60,000 before the war, mostly fled and dropped to 1,500 this summer. It is now estimated that only about 1,200 people remain.
CNN also projected that after the fall of Pokrovsk, President Putin is likely to shift the front line to other areas, such as industrial cities in northeastern Ukraine. Analysts say Russia is aiming not only for full control of the Donbas region but also for complete domination of southern regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
The second scenario, according to DW, citing analysis by Markus Reisner, a colonel in the Austrian military, is that President Putin may present this as a "Russian victory" and use it as a pretext for negotiations with Ukraine and the West.
Meanwhile, Ukraine appears to be pursuing a strategy of attacking Russian territory to force Russia to the negotiating table. President Volodymyr Zelensky has requested that U.S. President Donald Trump provide Tomahawk missiles with a range of 2,500 kilometers, which are strategic weapons capable of striking the Russian capital, Moscow. However, it has been reported that President Trump has taken a reserved stance on this request.
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