'Seize the Arctic Route': Korea, China, and Japan's Three-Way Rivalry [Arctic, The New Route to Hegemony] ⑥

Korea Accelerates Policy Approach Based on Scientific Research
China Builds the 'Ice Silk Road' with Russia

The three countries of Korea, China, and Japan, which simultaneously joined the Arctic Council as observer states, are fiercely competing to pioneer the Arctic shipping route, which would reduce logistics transport distances by about 40% compared to using the Suez Canal.

From the 16th to the 18th (local time), the Arctic Circle Assembly was held at the Harpa Concert Hall in Reykjavik, Iceland. Participants are preparing for the assembly. Photo by Lee Hyunju

Pioneering the Arctic Shipping Route as a National Policy Initiative

Korea was the slowest among the three countries to begin developing the Arctic shipping route, but under the Lee Jaemyung administration, it has gained momentum as a key national policy initiative. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has allocated a budget of 550 billion won for next year, to be used for building icebreakers and training polar maritime officers. This is an increase of 104.1 billion won (23.4%) compared to this year. The budget for technology development, including the construction of a next-generation icebreaking research vessel, will be significantly increased from 7.9 billion won this year to 67.7 billion won next year. In preparation for the activation of the Arctic shipping route and increased cargo volume, 462.2 billion won and 65.8 billion won will be invested in the construction of the new Jinhae port at Busan Port and the automation of Gwangyang Port, respectively.

Public opinion is also supportive. From March of this year to last month, a total of five special bills on the Arctic shipping route were introduced in the National Assembly, with bipartisan participation. These bills commonly include the creation of a Presidential Arctic Shipping Route Committee to facilitate inter-ministerial cooperation and the need to lead Arctic maritime logistics through the development of key regions. The goal is to proactively respond to the restructuring of global supply chains.

Until now, Korea has focused on scientific research in its response to Arctic issues. However, since the 2018 "Basic Plan for the Promotion of Arctic Activities," Korea has accelerated its efforts to pioneer the Arctic shipping route, prioritizing its economic value. In particular, since Arctic research is difficult to conduct without the support of Arctic states, Korea is paying close attention to fostering intergovernmental cooperation based on its research achievements and technological capabilities during the process of opening the Arctic shipping route.

Shin Hyungchul, Director of the Korea Polar Research Institute, stated in a presentation at the Arctic Circle Assembly held in Reykjavik, Iceland from October 16th to 18th (local time), "Even if the safety of the Arctic shipping route can be predicted, it cannot be realized without a perfect emergency plan for oil spills or search and rescue situations. The same applies to research activities. If Arctic states pursue them exclusively, their effectiveness will be limited," he explained.

Japan Conducts Accessibility Assessment Based on Next-Generation Icebreaking Research Vessel

Japan is also focusing on the economic benefits of the Arctic shipping route and aims to accelerate its development through the next-generation icebreaking research vessel "Mirai II," scheduled to begin operations in 2027. According to the detailed project status of the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability, a flagship program of Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan plans to conduct an accessibility assessment of the shipping route based on observations from the Mirai II research vessel until 2029. The Mirai II is capable of navigating the Arctic Ocean almost year-round and is equipped with devices to analyze seawater temperature and salinity, as well as underwater drones to study sea ice formations.

Takaya Shigeki, Senior Researcher at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation's Ocean Policy Research Institute, said during the "Ten Years of Japan's Arctic Policy: Achievements and Future Challenges" session at the Arctic Circle Assembly, "The Arctic shipping route can shorten the distance by up to 60% compared to routes through the Suez Canal or the Strait of Malacca, significantly reducing fuel consumption, carbon emissions, and transportation costs. The Arctic shipping route can play a role in strengthening the resilience of global logistics." Hiroyuki Inomoto, Project Professor at the National Institute of Polar Research, also stated, "Japan is very carefully monitoring the political situation, sea ice conditions, navigability, and market demand related to the Arctic shipping route."

China and Russia Build the "Ice Silk Road"

Among Asian countries, China has achieved the fastest results in pioneering the Arctic shipping route. Although China is not a coastal state of the Arctic Ocean, it defines itself as a "near-Arctic state" and has expanded its influence in the Arctic based on its vast capital and investment capacity.

From 2012 to 2017, China invested a total of 247.4 billion dollars (approximately 353.8 trillion won) in the six Arctic coastal states, excluding the United States. During the same period, Korea invested only 5.2168 billion dollars (about 7.4631 trillion won). While there are claims that China's investment figures may be somewhat exaggerated, it is a fact that China has made large-scale investments in infrastructure and mining development in Arctic countries. In 2018, China published its "Arctic Policy White Paper," making clear its intention to develop and utilize the Arctic shipping route.

China is also openly strengthening its cooperation with Russia on Arctic issues, even as Russia faces sanctions due to the war in Ukraine. China began by acquiring a 29% stake in a Russian company participating in the Yamal LNG carrier project in 2014 (the first LNG carrier project to traverse the Arctic shipping route) and has continued to expand its cooperation with Russia. In June of this year, the two countries agreed to establish a joint venture for the construction of Arctic vessels. The fact that China is securing active cooperation from Russia in pioneering the Arctic shipping route sets it apart from Korea and Japan.

On the 13th, the Chinese container ship "Istanbul Bridge" arrived at the Port of Felixstowe in the United Kingdom via the Arctic shipping route in just 20 days, which was made possible thanks to Russian support. Irina Strelnikova, Associate Professor at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, stated during the "China's Arctic Relations: Strategic Competition and Pragmatic Cooperation" session at the Arctic Circle Assembly, "Russia and China share many commonalities in the Arctic region. We also respect the role of the Arctic Council and international law."

However, the rapid expansion of China in the Arctic, with Russia's involvement, has heightened vigilance among neighboring countries in Europe and North America. Since the war in Ukraine, Russia has been actively pursuing a "dual-use" Arctic strategy that combines civilian infrastructure with military strategy, leading to similar suspicions about China's activities in the Arctic.

Hong Nong, Executive Director of the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) in Washington, said, "This voyage is significant as the first regular liner service connecting Asia and Europe via the polar region, and as a case where it called at several ports in China and Europe." However, she also pointed out, "Due to its cooperation with Russia, China is facing heightened tensions with the United States, which is negatively impacting its scientific research cooperation in North America."