Senate to Vote on Stopgap Spending Bill Today
Vice President and House Speaker Leave Door Open to Shutdown
AI Stocks Show Mixed Performance: Nvidia, Micron Up
The three major indices of the New York Stock Exchange in the United States showed slight declines in early trading on September 30 (local time). This reflects investor caution as concerns mount over a potential federal government shutdown (temporary suspension of government operations).
As of 9:35 a.m. on the New York Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 31.87 points (0.07%) at 46,284.2 compared to the previous trading day. The large-cap S&P 500 Index fell 11.03 points (0.17%) to 6,650.18, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 53.805 points (0.24%) to 22,537.349.
On this day, as the end of the federal government’s 2025 fiscal year approaches, the possibility of a shutdown is coming to the fore. President Donald Trump met with bipartisan congressional leaders the previous day, but the negotiations ended without progress. The Senate is scheduled to vote again on a stopgap spending bill. If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by the end of the day, the federal government will enter a shutdown starting October 1. Although markets typically do not react strongly to shutdown concerns, investor sentiment is being pressured by fears that a repeat of the credit rating downgrade by international credit rating agency Moody’s in May could occur.
The Republican Party is not ruling out the possibility of a shutdown. Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives and a Republican, said in an interview with CNBC that he is "skeptical" about the possibility of avoiding a shutdown. The previous day, Vice President J.D. Vance had stated that "the government is heading toward a shutdown because the Democrats are not willing to do the right thing," leaving the possibility of a shutdown open.
In the market, there are concerns that if a shutdown materializes, it could also impact monetary policy. In its emergency plan released on September 26, the U.S. Department of Labor stated that "the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend all operations in the event of a shutdown," and that "economic indicators scheduled for release during this period will not be published."
Particularly, the September employment report, scheduled for release on October 3, is expected to serve as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in October. As a result, there are growing expectations that a delay in its release due to the shutdown could increase uncertainty in monetary policy. The market forecasts that nonfarm payrolls in September will increase by 51,000, an improvement from August’s 22,000, and that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%.
Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said, "The market widely expects a shutdown in Washington, so investors are largely taking a wait-and-see approach," but added, "If the situation lasts more than two weeks, people will start to worry."
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, analyzed, "Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate cut decisions, the risk of a delay in the September employment report could amplify market anxiety about the direction of policy."
U.S. Treasury yields are showing a slight decline. The 10-year yield, the global benchmark for bond yields, fell by 1 basis point (1bp = 0.01 percentage point) from the previous trading day to 4.13%, while the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, is moving at 3.63%, down 1bp from the previous day.
By stock, satellite TV company EchoStar is up 3.61% on news that it is selling wireless frequencies to Verizon. ExxonMobil is down 0.89% after announcing a plan to cut 2,000 jobs worldwide. Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, which rose the previous day, are showing mixed movements. Nvidia is up 0.7% and Micron is up 1.64%, while AMD is down 0.69%.
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