"Concerns Over 'Korea Passing' if North Korea?U.S. Talks Resume" [Meeting U.S. Think Tanks]

North Korea Blames South Korea for Hanoi Summit Failure
Both Kim Jong Un and Trump Unlikely to Prioritize South Korea
North Korea's Elevated Status Makes Denuclearization Talks Unlikely

Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, is speaking at the 13th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly held in Pyongyang on the 20th. Photo by Korean Central News Agency

Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., expressed concerns that South Korea could be excluded from diplomatic and security discussions if North Korea-United States talks resume-a situation often referred to as "Korea Passing." He analyzed that, just as President Volodymyr Zelensky experienced humiliation by being sidelined during this year's discussions on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, South Korea could face a similar fate.

During a meeting with Korean journalists at the CSIS conference room on the 9th (local time), Cha stated, "If dialogue between North Korea and the United States resumes, South Korea will want to participate, but I think North Korea will absolutely not want South Korea involved." This roundtable was held as part of a Korea-U.S. journalist exchange program organized by the Korea Press Foundation and the East-West Center.

On the 9th (local time), Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), was met. Washington DC - Photo by Cha Minyoung

He predicted that North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un would try to thoroughly exclude South Korea from talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Cha explained, "North Korea blames South Korea for the failure of the Hanoi summit, arguing that former President Moon Jae-in gave Trump the mistaken impression that a deal with North Korea would be easy." He added, "President Trump actually stormed out of the negotiations, which was a major humiliation for the North Korean leader. North Korea will likely insist on leaving South Korea out of the discussions."

It is also anticipated that Trump would prefer direct negotiations with Kim Jong Un. Cha pointed out, "Since Trump has a certain relationship with Kim Jong Un, I don't think he will pay much attention to South Korea. That is a concerning aspect."

He continued, "What South Korea can do is try to ensure the United States does not exclude it, but whether that will actually happen is questionable." He added, "Just as with Zelensky, it could be a situation where the parties say, 'We have reached an agreement with North Korea; all that's left is to sign.'" In particular, if Trump insists that only the United States, North Korea, and China are needed to sign a peace agreement, he may go along with it.

The terms of negotiation between Trump and Kim Jong Un are expected to be significantly different from those at the Hanoi summit in Vietnam. North Korea has now effectively established itself as a "de facto nuclear power," and with improved relations with Russia and China, it has much less incentive to seek U.S. assistance. While the goal for both the United States and South Korea is North Korea's denuclearization, in reality, a "small deal" such as nuclear arms reduction appears more likely.

Cha commented, "The United States will never abandon the goal of denuclearization, but North Korea already possesses more than 50 nuclear weapons and has enough material to make over 40 more. Realistically, this seems difficult. If negotiations resume, I think the best outcome would be to reduce or control the threat."

He also said, "If the United States and North Korea reach a threat reduction or small deal, it would still be better than the current 'no deal' situation, as it would reduce the threat. However, I don't think such a deal would lead to South Korea pursuing its own nuclear armament. On the contrary, if the United States were to withdraw its troops from South Korea, then discussions about South Korea's nuclear armament would likely become more serious."

On the 11th (local time), Patrick Cronin, Chair of Asia-Pacific Security, met at the Hudson Institute.

Patrick Cronin, Chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, was also asked about the possibility of a small deal under a second Trump administration. He responded, "I don't think a peace agreement that satisfies everyone is possible. The reality is that what North Korea wants is to be recognized as a small country that needs nuclear weapons for protection against neighboring threats, and to have its right to possess nuclear weapons acknowledged."

He continued, "Kim Jong Un is a leader of his regime, and ultimately, this is not about personal rapport or relationships but about pursuing structural objectives and strategies. Since the structural goals of the United States, South Korea, and North Korea are all different, I think true peace is difficult to achieve."

He added, "It was the same during Trump's first term and under President Moon Jae-in. Kim Jong Un has invested massively in nuclear weapons for decades, disregarding the minor incentives provided by the United States and South Korea, and he wants nuclear power. Given that North Korea already has such capabilities, I don't think President Lee Jaemyung's proposals would be satisfactory for Kim Jong Un."

He further clarified, "This is not to say that what President Lee Jaemyung is doing is wrong or bad, but I don't think Kim Jong Un will be satisfied or even care about measures at that level."

On the 11th (local time), Jenny Town, director and senior researcher of 38 North at the Stimson Center (right), and Martin Williams, senior researcher, met at the Stimson Center.

However, there are predictions that it will not be easy for a second Trump administration to find an "agenda" attractive enough to entice North Korea back to talks. Jenny Town, director and senior fellow of 38 North at the Stimson Center, said, "We don't know what kind of proposal North Korea would accept, because North Korea-U.S. relations are not shaped solely by the two countries, but are influenced by other factors as well."

She added, "For example, we need to examine how the relationship between Putin and Trump develops and how that could impact North Korea-U.S. relations. I believe U.S.-Russia relations are important in the context of North Korea-U.S. relations, and I can say with confidence that North Korea does not want to discuss denuclearization."

Concerns have also been raised about North Korea's recent moves to strengthen ties with Russia since last year. North Korea has been drawing closer to Russia, particularly after sending troops to support the Russia-Ukraine war. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also described North Korea-Russia relations as a "solid brotherly relationship" in July.

Cha noted, "The increasingly close relationship between Russia and North Korea is extremely dangerous from the perspective of South Korea, the United States, and Japan. In the past, when China exerted its influence, it played a leverage role and helped with denuclearization, but that is no longer the case."

He continued, "When China had influence, it regulated North Korea's actions for its own interests-for example, telling North Korea not to conduct a seventh nuclear test or not to launch missiles over Japan. In contrast, Russia is mainly interested in obtaining weapons or military support from North Korea, or buying them if necessary, and does not care about or pay attention to what North Korea does. That is the key difference."