The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has maintained its forecast for South Korea's economic growth rate this year at 1%. It projected that the economy will grow by 2.2% next year.
In its "Interim Economic Outlook" report published on September 23, the OECD forecast South Korea's growth rate for this year at 1.0%, unchanged from its previous projection in June (1.0%). The OECD Interim Economic Outlook is released twice a year, in March and September.
The OECD's growth projection is 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points higher than those of the government (0.9%), the Bank of Korea (0.9%), the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 0.8%), and the Korea Development Institute (0.8%). The OECD assessed that "the South Korean economy is expected to continue its recent recovery trend."
The global economic growth rate for this year was revised upward to 3.2%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous projection (2.9%). However, the forecast for next year remained unchanged at 2.9%. The OECD noted that the global economy is maintaining its recovery momentum, supported by early shipping effects ahead of tariff increases and investments in artificial intelligence (AI).
However, the OECD also predicted that future growth may slow somewhat, as major countries are showing signs of weaker industrial production and retail sales growth, as well as some softening in labor markets.
By country, the United States is expected to grow by 1.8% this year and 1.5% in 2026, limited by tariff increases and ongoing policy uncertainty. The eurozone (20 countries using the euro) is projected to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.0% in 2026, as eased credit conditions partially offset trade friction and geopolitical uncertainty.
Japan is expected to see 1.1% growth this year and 0.5% in 2026, as rising corporate profits and investment support economic activity. China's growth rate is projected to decline to 4.9% this year and 4.4% in 2026, due to the diminishing effect of early shipping, high tariffs, and reduced fiscal spending.
In terms of inflation, the major G20 countries are expected to see inflation fall to 3.4% this year and 2.9% in 2026, due to slower growth and a weakening labor market. However, the United States is likely to continue exceeding its inflation target next year, as tariff increases further stimulate price rises and strengthen the pass-through of final goods prices.
The government stated, "The South Korean economy is expected to see an expanded recovery from the second half of this year, with a stable trend continuing into next year." It added, "This appears to reflect the effects of improved consumer sentiment resulting from active fiscal policies and economic stimulus measures such as livelihood recovery consumption coupons implemented since the inauguration of the Lee Jaemyung administration."
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