[Choi Junyoung's World+] Saudi Arabia Sides with Nuclear-Armed Pakistan Over the U.S.

Signing of Mutual Defense Treaty Including Nuclear Umbrella
Growing Distrust of U.S. Favoritism Toward Israel
Potential for Strengthened China Cooperation Through Pakistan

On September 17 (local time), Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense treaty. While many countries have entered into defense treaties that require mutual support in the event of an external attack, this particular agreement is expected to have a significant impact not only in the Middle East but also across the broader South Asian region. This is because Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons. In essence, the core of this treaty is that Pakistan has officially agreed to provide a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia in exchange for various forms of support.

Pakistan is often perceived as a poor country, but it is the only Islamic nation with nuclear weapons and maintains the largest military among them. Pakistan, known to have assisted North Korea in developing nuclear weapons, possesses approximately 170 nuclear warheads and Shaheen-3 ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 2,750 kilometers. Pakistan has faced ongoing threats from India and has struggled economically due to natural disasters such as floods, receiving various forms of economic assistance from Saudi Arabia over the years.

About 2.5 million Pakistani workers are employed in Saudi Arabia, and their remittances provide significant support to Pakistan’s economy. Saudi Arabia is also believed to have provided some funding for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development, though it has never made any official statements regarding this. However, with the signing of this mutual defense treaty, Saudi Arabia has now, in effect, acquired indirect access to nuclear weapons.

Until now, Saudi Arabia has relied entirely on the United States for its national defense. Having purchased large quantities of American weapons over several decades, Saudi Arabia has played the role of the closest U.S. ally in the Middle East. However, under this new mutual defense treaty, Saudi Arabia has publicly declared that it will strengthen its security by cooperating with various powers based on its own judgment, rather than relying unilaterally on the United States.

The primary reason Saudi Arabia entered into this mutual defense treaty with Pakistan was the recent Israeli airstrike on Qatar. Following Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel in 2023 and the ensuing Gaza war, Qatar made significant efforts to mediate between the two sides at the request of the United States and others. A Hamas negotiation team was staying in Qatar, and Israel attacked them there. This act instilled fear of Israeli military power not only in Qatar but also in neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Furthermore, the fact that the United States was unable to control Israel and appeared to shield Israel even after the airstrike led Middle Eastern countries to conclude that they could no longer entrust their security to the United States. By providing a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has enabled Saudi Arabia to achieve military parity with Israel.

The signing of the mutual defense treaty between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could also have major implications for their relationships with not only Israel but also the United States and China. Pakistan maintains a very close relationship with China and relies heavily on China for various military equipment, including fighter jets. In the aerial skirmish between India and Pakistan in June, the Pakistan Air Force shot down several French-made Rafale jets belonging to the Indian Air Force, using fighter jets and missiles supplied by China. Although not officially confirmed, it is believed that Chinese satellites and early warning aircraft were monitoring Indian military movements and may have provided real-time intelligence to direct Pakistani forces. With Pakistan now entering into a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, the relationship between China and Saudi Arabia is likely to become even closer, with Pakistan serving as a bridge. This development is particularly troubling for the United States, which has been trying to contain and pressure China.

After taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump made the Middle East his first overseas destination and invested significant diplomatic effort there. President Trump secured promises of large-scale investments in the United States from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and in return, agreed to provide large quantities of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and pursue joint technology development. His strategy was to leverage Middle Eastern capital and energy to gain an edge over China in the AI sector, which requires massive investment.

However, with the signing of this mutual defense treaty, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will act independently rather than simply following the United States’ wishes, posing a significant challenge to American influence in the Middle East. As hostility toward Israel spreads among Middle Eastern countries, the United States faces an increasingly difficult situation in the region.

Since the Afghanistan war following the September 11 attacks in 2001, Pakistan has generally maintained a cooperative relationship with the United States, but it has also supported the Taliban to maintain its own influence in Afghanistan, displaying a dual approach. After the Afghanistan war, the United States increasingly favored India, Pakistan’s adversary, and openly disregarded Pakistan. For Pakistan, U.S. favoritism toward India was seen as a threat to its survival, especially given its ongoing struggle with India. As a result, Pakistan sought to ensure its survival by relying on China, and now, by bringing Saudi Arabia into the equation, it has secured more room to act independently.

The mutual defense treaty between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia serves as a reminder that the world is moving toward a new order. Countries are making independent decisions and taking actions based on their own interests, blurring the lines between friends and foes. Diverse trends that cannot be explained by traditional alliances are growing stronger. From our perspective, it is urgent to move beyond the simplistic dichotomy of viewing the Middle East as either pro-American or anti-American. These two countries demonstrate that we must see the world as it is and act in pursuit of our own interests within it.

Choi Junyoung, Senior Advisor at Yulchon LLC (Global Law & Policy)