U.S. Military Observes Russian Exercise...Poland on High Alert [Current Affairs Show]

Eastern European NATO Members on High Alert
U.S.-Russia Negotiations for Improved Relations Continue

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show"

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop

■ Director: Producer Ma Yena

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

The United States sent a delegation of high-ranking military officers to observe the large-scale joint military exercise "Zapad 2025," conducted by Russia and Belarus for five days starting from the 12th. This move has sparked strong backlash from European member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The visit of the U.S. military delegation to Russia comes at a time when Eastern European countries are extremely tense over Russia's military threats, and is being seen as undermining the trust of its allies.

Poland Deploys Troops to Border...U.S. Delegation Visits Belarus

On the 16th (local time), Russian President Vladimir Putin participated in the "Zapad 2025" military exercises held in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, dressed in military uniform. Photo by TASS Yonhap News

Zapad 2025 is a joint maneuver exercise conducted by Russia and Belarus every four years. This year's exercise was held simultaneously in various regions, including mainland Russia, Belarus, the Baltic Sea, and the Barents Sea, from the 12th to the 16th.

The exercises held in Belarus drew particular attention, as Belarus shares a direct border with eastern Poland, causing the Polish government to react with extreme anxiety. Upon hearing news of the exercises, Poland immediately deployed 40,000 troops to the border and took the drastic step of closing the border.

Poland's heightened alert is closely linked to a series of recent Russian drone incursions. Just two days before the exercises began, on the 10th, 19 Russian drones illegally crossed into Polish airspace, prompting the Polish military to respond and shoot down four of them. While Russia claimed that the drones malfunctioned en route to Ukraine, Poland strongly refuted this, questioning whether 19 drones could all malfunction simultaneously.

On the 15th, a Russian drone also illegally crossed into the border of Romania, another NATO member state, further escalating tensions throughout Eastern Europe. As Eastern European countries entered a state of heightened military alert, the decision by the United States, Turkey, and Hungary to send delegations to the Russia-Belarus joint exercise ignited significant controversy.

Turkey and Hungary, despite being NATO members, have traditionally been considered pro-Russian and have played mediating roles between NATO and Russia, so their participation was somewhat understandable. However, the dispatch of a U.S. delegation was perceived as an entirely different matter. The United States is the central power in NATO and is responsible for the defense of member states under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Sending high-ranking U.S. military officers to a large-scale Russian military event, at a time when all Eastern European NATO members are on high alert, has raised suspicions that the visit was more about fostering relations than analyzing military capabilities.

In fact, the Zapad 2025 exercise was more symbolic, aimed at strengthening ties between Russia and Belarus and demonstrating Russian military power to Europe, rather than exposing actual military capabilities. The U.S. decision to send a delegation of high-ranking officers to such an event is being interpreted as a confusing signal to its allies.

The European Union Indefinitely Postpones Announcement of the 19th Sanctions Package Against Russia

Reuters Yonhap News

The unusual move by the United States has left its European allies bewildered. The European Union had planned to announce its 19th sanctions package against Russia, including additional restrictions on oil imports, on the 17th. However, the announcement was postponed indefinitely, citing uncertainty about the direction of the Trump administration's Russia policy.

This is seen as a result of ongoing efforts by the United States and Russia to improve bilateral relations, separate from the war in Ukraine. In addition to the issue of a ceasefire in Ukraine, the two countries need to renegotiate various security treaties-such as nuclear arms reduction, ballistic missile limits, and Arctic security-that were nearly abandoned during the previous Joe Biden administration.

While the United States continues to call for tougher sanctions against Russia on the surface, its decision to send a military delegation to Russia as a conciliatory gesture appears to be rooted in this context. However, this has led allies to question America's true intentions, expressing doubts about its reliability. Foreign media have even reported that the U.S. government has recently notified Eastern European countries, including the Baltic states, that it may gradually reduce military support in the future, further eroding trust in the United States.

Poland's anxiety is particularly acute due to its geopolitical position. Poland borders Russia's Kaliningrad region to the northeast and Belarus to the east, effectively leaving it surrounded on two fronts. Russia continues to bolster its military presence in both areas, even mentioning and reportedly deploying hypersonic missiles and tactical nuclear weapons.

There are also concerns that Russia could swiftly seize control of the "Suwalki Gap," a strategically important area located between Kaliningrad and Belarus. This region, situated at the intersection of the borders of Poland, Belarus, Russia, and Lithuania, has long been neglected and is similar in character to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Korea.

With the Russian military intensifying drone surveillance in the area, fears are growing that Russia could suddenly occupy the Suwalki Gap in a crisis. Should Russia connect Kaliningrad and Belarus by seizing the Suwalki Gap, the land route between the Baltic states and Poland would be cut off, potentially leaving the Baltic states completely surrounded.

In such a scenario, the Baltic states would face the threat of a full-scale Russian invasion, while Poland would be left to defend the eastern front alone-a daunting prospect. The greater concern is that, since the Suwalki Gap is not officially recognized as belonging to any country, even a temporary Russian occupation would make it difficult for NATO to respond immediately.

Declining U.S. Alliance Credibility and Fears of Every Country for Itself

AP Yonhap News

The United States' ambiguous Russia policy and hints at reducing military support for Eastern Europe have caused significant concern among its allies. The core issue is whether the United States would respond swiftly and decisively with military force under Article 5 of the NATO treaty if Russia were to invade a NATO member state.

Poland, in particular, has a historical trauma stemming from World War II, when delayed military intervention by Britain and France led to the country being partitioned by Germany and the Soviet Union. As a result, the lack of certainty about allied military support inevitably leads to extreme anxiety. Germany, the central base of European NATO, is located just to the west of Poland, intensifying fears that Russian forces could penetrate deep into central Europe. Although U.S. troops are currently stationed in Poland and the U.S. government has even promised to deploy additional forces from Germany, Polish anxieties continue to mount.

The cracks appearing in the alliance in Europe could have a direct impact on Northeast Asia as well. If the United States prioritizes its own national interests and bilateral relations over the security of its allies, similar problems could arise for its Asian allies, including South Korea. Unlike Europe, Northeast Asia faces a complex and dangerous mix of potential military provocations from North Korea, China, and Russia. If the United States responds passively to issues in Eastern Europe, unpredictable situations could unfold in Asia as well.

If such trends continue, the possibility cannot be ruled out that each country may shift to a self-defense posture. In fact, discussions about independent nuclear armament are emerging not only in Ukraine but also in various European countries. Going forward, the South Korean government will need to closely monitor developments among neighboring threats such as China, Russia, and North Korea, as well as the strengthening of ties among these countries and changes in relationships between the United States and its global allies, and formulate appropriate response strategies.