Kim Jongun Likely to Depart for China by Train Today... North Korea, China, and Russia Leaders to Gather Together

Kim Jongun, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, is expected to board a train to China on September 1 to attend the military parade marking the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the Anti-Japanese War (Victory Day) on September 3. It is anticipated that the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia will stand side by side atop Tiananmen in Beijing.

Kim Jongun, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, as reported on Chosun Central TV. Photo by Yonhap News

According to multiple intelligence sources on September 1, Chairman Kim is highly likely to use a special train for his visit to Beijing, which takes about 20 to 24 hours one way. North Korea's dedicated aircraft for its leader, "Chammae-1," has not been used since June 2018, making train travel the more probable option this time as well. There have been no signs of preparations for accommodations for Kim Jongun and other North Korean officials in Beijing. It is highly likely that, without any external lodging, they will travel long-distance by train, arrive in Beijing on September 2, and immediately stay at Diaoyutai, the official state guesthouse of the Chinese government.

This visit by Chairman Kim to China is considered unusual as it is effectively his first participation in an "international multilateral event." Since the Chinese Victory Day ceremony is attended by numerous heads of state, the general expectation was that Chairman Kim's attendance was unlikely. In fact, it has been 45 years since a North Korean leader participated in a multilateral overseas event, the last being the late President Kim Il Sung's attendance at the funeral of the former President of Yugoslavia in 1980. There were no such precedents during the tenure of the late Kim Jongil, Chairman Kim's father.

The government is reported to have been aware of Chairman Kim's schedule to visit China in advance. On August 25 (local time), there is a possibility that President Lee Jaemyung and U.S. President Donald Trump held private discussions on this matter. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun stated in a media interview the previous day, "We were fully aware of (Chairman Kim's visit to China) as an intelligence matter."

There are differing interpretations regarding Chairman Kim's intentions for visiting China. In June 2018, ahead of the first-ever North Korea-U.S. summit, Chairman Kim visited China twice (in March to Beijing and in May to Dalian) to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This move is being interpreted as following precedent by engaging with China, a traditional ally, before North Korea-U.S. talks. Minister Cho commented, "North Korea knows that in order to become a truly normal state, it will eventually have to cooperate with the United States and the Republic of Korea, so it is desirable that they are at least making new attempts."

On the other hand, there are also concerns that the "South Korea-U.S.-Japan vs. North Korea-China-Russia" new Cold War structure could intensify. Yang Moojin, honorary professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, "While the North Korea-China-Russia alliance will be highlighted outwardly, the real focus is on restoring North Korea-China relations," but also emphasized, "We must prevent the solidification of the new Cold War structure between South Korea-U.S.-Japan and North Korea-China-Russia."

Meanwhile, there is growing interest in whether Chairman Kim will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting to be held in Gyeongju in October. However, Presidential National Security Office Chief Wi Sunglak said in a radio interview the previous day, when asked about the possibility of officially inviting Chairman Kim to APEC, "I don't think that will happen." Minister Cho also stated, "The possibility is currently very low."