[Good Morning Market] "KOSPI Expected to Fluctuate Around 3,200 Amid Tariff Concerns"

Indicators Awaited to Gauge Tariff Impact
"Government's Expansionary Fiscal Policy Seen as Positive for the Market"

This week, the KOSPI is expected to fluctuate around the 3,200-point level as the market digests factors such as indicators confirming the impact of reciprocal tariffs from the United States and Korea's export performance.

On September 1, Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, projected the KOSPI's expected range this week to be between 3,140 and 3,230 points. She stated, "The market is likely to continue searching for direction as it digests various factors, including noise surrounding tariffs and semiconductor regulations from U.S. President Donald Trump, key indicators such as the August U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and nonfarm payrolls, earnings from U.S. artificial intelligence companies such as Salesforce and Broadcom, and Korea's August export data."

She added, "The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI will draw significant market attention, as it will be the first indicator to show how reciprocal tariffs are affecting corporate purchasing managers' sentiment. Another key event to watch is Korea's August export data, which will be released before the market opens today. By examining the export performance of major industries and export figures to major countries such as the United States, we can gauge the lingering effects of tariffs. This process may lead to changes in earnings forecasts for industries vulnerable to tariffs, such as semiconductors, automobiles, and secondary batteries."

On August 29 (local time), all three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,544.88, down 92.02 points (0.20%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 Index fell 41.60 points (0.64%) to 6,460.26, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 249.61 points (1.15%) to 21,455.55. Technology stocks declined as concerns spread over reduced demand for U.S. AI chips following news that Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba had developed its own next-generation artificial intelligence chip. The share prices of Nvidia and Broadcom both fell by more than 3%.

On the 26th of last month (local time), a trader is working at the New York Stock Exchange in the United States. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Cho Joonki, a researcher at SK Securities, commented, "Since the global financial crisis, the months with the worst returns have been August and September in the United States, and August to October in Korea. However, we cannot say that the market will decline this month simply because of past trends." He continued, "While there are many negative factors and the environment is not favorable for a sharp rise in the index, last week saw the announcement of the 2026 budget plan (728 trillion won) and related details such as a surge in budgets for research and development, industry, small and medium-sized enterprises, and energy. The domestic expansionary fiscal policy and its intensity are likely to be sustained, which is a positive factor from a market perspective."