Kim Junil: "Han Donghoon's Political Dark Age", Kang Jeonae: "Likely to Investigate Bulletin Board Controversy" [Current Affairs Show]

Kim Junil: "Jang Donghyuk and Hwang Kyoan's Leaderships Follow a Parallel Theory"
Kang Jeonae: "Kim Moonsoo's Votes May Have Shifted to Jang Donghyuk"

■ Broadcast: Asia Economy 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show (Mon-Fri, 4-5 PM)'

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: Producer Park Sumin

■ Guests: Kang Jeonae, spokesperson for the People Power Party, and Kim Junil, current affairs commentator

So Jongseop: 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' features current affairs commentator Kim Junil and People Power Party spokesperson Kang Jeonae every Wednesday. This week has also seen many developments. First, Assemblyman Jang Donghyuk was elected as the new leader of the People Power Party. What are your thoughts on this?

Kim Junil: This time, the results of the first round of voting were also made public. To put it roughly, Jang Donghyuk received 130,000 votes, Kim Moonsoo 100,000, Cho Kyungtae 60,000, and Ahn Cheolsoo 40,000. Since Jang Donghyuk came in first in the first round, it put pressure on Kim Moonsoo. That's why he met with Ahn Cheolsoo and sent out an SOS to former leader Han Donghoon. The so-called pro-impeachment, reformist conservative camp had about 100,000 votes. Even if not all of those votes moved together, and the split was about 60:40 or 70:30, Kim Moonsoo was expected to win. That was the calculation, but it seems the makeup of the first and second rounds changed.

So Jongseop: Are you saying the nature of the votes changed?

Kim Junil: The voter turnout increased by 2.16 percentage points. So why did it go up? There are two hypotheses about why people who didn't vote in the first round came out for the runoff. One is the "Stop Jang Donghyuk" theory. Simply put, when former leader Han Donghoon said the worst must be avoided, people who supported Han in the first round but didn't particularly want to back Cho Kyungtae or Ahn Cheolsoo thought, "No, we have to block the traitor," and came out to help Kim. The second hypothesis is that when Kim Moonsoo said he would also give nominations to Han Donghoon, some thought, "No, we have to block the traitor," and came out to support Jang Donghyuk instead. I leaned toward the first hypothesis,but when the results came out, it turned out to be the latter.

In any case, the atmosphere at the party convention now, and also in the Democratic Party, is that strong personalities are rising-it's not a calm situation, but more like a wartime scenario.

People want someone who seems like they can fight well against the other side. Kim Moonsoo, especially in the runoff, seemed to lose some of his distinctiveness. That's likely why support shifted sharply toward Jang Donghyuk.

Kang Jeonae: In the first round, Kim Moonsoo had 100,000 votes, Cho Kyungtae 60,000, and Ahn Cheolsoo 30,000. If Kim had captured both Cho and Ahn's votes, he would have had nearly 200,000 in total. But in the runoff, Kim Moonsoo had 160,000 votes-an increase of 60,000. Meanwhile, Jang Donghyuk went from 130,000 to 180,000, a gain of 50,000. So, some of Cho and Ahn's votes also went to Jang Donghyuk. While Kim Moonsoo did gain some of Ahn and Cho's votes, it seems some of his original supporters shifted to Jang Donghyuk instead.

So Jongseop: That sounds plausible.

Kang Jeonae: Kim Moonsoo said all 107 members must move together. He also said that former leader Han Donghoon should be given a nomination next time and is an important asset. But Jang Donghyuk clearly drew a line, saying he couldn't move forward with those who disagreed within the party. This leads to the idea that some of Kim Moonsoo's original supporters may have switched to Jang Donghyuk at the last minute.

So Jongseop: Then why, at this point, did Jang Donghyuk become the leader of the People Power Party? He is only a 1.5-term lawmaker.

Kang Jeonae: Even so, he served as secretary-general and senior supreme council member, and ultimately rose to party leader on his own strength. There was talk within the party that Jang Donghyuk's rapid rise was unusual, and there were rumors that he captured about 40% in the first round. The actual numbers seem close to that, so Jang Donghyuk was confident. The ambiguous stances of Kim Moonsoo and former leader Han Donghoon were problematic, in my view.

Kim Moonsoo and Han Donghoon's Ambiguous Stances Were Fatal Mistakes

Kim Moonsoo said you shouldn't cut out cancer cells, essentially admitting he saw Han Donghoon's faction as cancer cells. Han Donghoon said, "We must avoid the worst." In this context, the worst is Jang Donghyuk, and the lesser evil is Kim Moonsoo. Can we really say this was a true alliance? There seemed to be a clash of egos, and neither side truly came together, while Jang Donghyuk's surge was significant. Ultimately, it seems party members strongly wanted unity rather than internal division. Members were also likely disappointed by the recent messages from Han Donghoon and his allies.

Jang Donghyuk, the newly elected leader of the People Power Party, is shouting a fighting slogan together with the party leadership, including Song Unseok, the emergency response committee chairman and floor leader, after being elected at the final round of the 6th People Power Party convention held at the National Assembly Library in Yeouido, Seoul on the 26th. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Kim Junil: If you want a "one team," you should have chosen Kim Moonsoo. Kim Moonsoo wanted to embrace everyone. But that's not what the party members wanted. They wanted clarity. The hardline conservative sentiment is strong now, and this isn't the first time. History repeats itself. The party convention in 2019, when Hwang Kyoahn was elected, is very similar. After losing the local elections and Hong Joonpyo stepped down, the Liberty Korea Party had three candidates: Kim Jintae, Oh Sehoon, and Hwang Kyoahn. In public opinion polls, Hwang lagged behind Oh Sehoon, but he had passionate support from hardline party members. Hwang's message was very similar to Jang Donghyuk's now.

Jang Donghyuk's Leadership Likely to Repeat Hwang Kyoahn's Path of Defeat

Both are saying, "Impeach Moon Jaein, bring down Lee Jaemyung." The party wanted someone who could fight the government, not necessarily build unity. But what was the result? After joining hands with hardline conservative Jeon Gwanghun, despite the Cho Kuk scandal, the party suffered its worst defeat in history-winning only 103 seats while the Democratic Party took 180. If Jang Donghyuk joins forces with Jeon Hangil, can they win next year's local elections? I think it's very difficult to break out of this path dependency of defeat. It's not easy, in my view.

Kang Jeonae: In any case, Jang Donghyuk has said he will visit former President Yoon Sukyeol. Visiting him signals a proactive approach. After that, Jang Donghyuk may raise his voice during Yoon Sukyeol's upcoming trial. Recently, another issue is that the party is saying it will review and release CCTV footage in the Legislation and Judiciary Committee. Even Justice Minister Jeong Sungho expressed reservations, while Committee Chair Chu Mi-ae believes that's exactly why she was put in that position. The Democratic Party is also taking a hardline stance, and this is unfolding right now. Soon, Jang Donghyuk may issue messages that go beyond simply calling for respect for human rights and adherence to investigative rules.

So Jongseop: Is the influence of figures like Jeon Hangil and conservative YouTubers growing within the People Power Party?

Kim Junil: In politics, how people perceive you is more important than how you see yourself. Jang Donghyuk, for everyone to see, was the first to meet Jeon Hangil, and the noise around Jeon Hangil was enormous. If he doesn't send a clear message or take action, the party will inevitably be seen as moving together with Jeon Hangil, which is a very difficult situation. Every party is swayed by hardline voices. In the Democratic Party, people said "Eosim" (Kim Eo-jun's influence) won after the convention, and that's true. But if you put Kim Eo-jun and Jeon Hangil side by side, which one do moderates dislike more? Who is more unappealing?

People may dislike Kim Eo-jun, but Jeon Hangil talks about election fraud conspiracies and "Yoon Again." It's a tough problem. You can't cut off Jeon Hangil, but you can't fully embrace him either. It's a complete dilemma.

Jang Donghyuk, the newly appointed party leader of the People Power Party, is waving the party flag at the 6th party convention final held at the National Assembly Library on the 26th. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Kang Jeonae: It's honestly hard to gauge what Jang Donghyuk is really thinking. His political spectrum has been very broad. I heard his campaign team had only about five people. When he was elected, he called it a miracle and expressed gratitude for new media. He charged forward and won. So, the role of new media was significant, and since he became party leader in this way, I think he might bring change by appointing unexpected figures.

So Jongseop: What do you think about the claim that former leader Han Donghoon suffered political damage this time?

Han Donghoon Suffered Political Damage

Kim Junil:In the end, he did suffer damage. Han Donghoon's political prospects were never that bright, but now he's entered a dark period. There's a question within the party about how much of a real faction Han Donghoon has. Han Donghoon is more of a symbol for reformist conservatives, but how many true followers are there?

So Jongseop: A real Han Donghoon faction?

Kim Junil: For example, spokesperson Yoon Heeseok is considered a true Han Donghoon ally, but among lawmakers, who else is there? In reality, it's a loose alliance of those who supported Yoon Sukyeol's impeachment, centered on the symbolic figure of Han Donghoon. As for Jang Donghyuk, I think he will try to sideline Han Donghoon rather than expel him outright. He'll continue to humiliate him. If Jang Donghyuk were to expel or oust him, it would only increase Han Donghoon's political stature.

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Kang Jeonae: Kim Minsu, just elected as a new supreme council member, said there should be a party audit regarding the controversy over the party members' bulletin board. So, I don't think Han Donghoon will be immediately referred to the ethics committee, but there's the question of how to handle Kim Jonghyuk, the former supreme council member who is already under review. I also think it's highly likely there will be a party audit of the bulletin board.

Hardline members are saying there needs to be a reckoning, that there should be accountability. The fact that a newly elected supreme council member raised this issue strongly at the first meeting suggests it's likely to proceed. Some are speculating that Han Donghoon's faction might break away and form a new party, but I think that opportunity has already passed. If they were going to do it, it should have been right after the martial law incident, when Han Donghoon was ousted as party leader. Many people were angry then, and that's when they should have acted.

Possible Audit Over Bulletin Board Controversy, Han Donghoon's Faction Unlikely to Leave

If they leave the party now, everyone will see it as an expulsion, even if it's formally a withdrawal. So I don't think a split is possible for Han Donghoon's faction right now. Looking back, in the last general election, Han Donghoon led the campaign. I recall how he treated former leader Yoo Seungmin-he didn't give him any role, not even as an election committee chair or in any honorary capacity. He said there were limits to what they could do together, and now it seems that attitude is coming back to haunt him. It's unfortunate.

Kim Junil: Realistically, a split isn't possible. To form a new party, you need money and a regional base to have any chance in a general or local election in South Korea, but they have neither. The reformist conservatives have no clear direction, and past failures are deeply ingrained. Currently, if proportional representatives leave the party, they must give up their seats. In this situation, many people would not have enough faith in Han Donghoon to go through such hardship with him.

People Power Party leader Han Donghoon is smiling as lawmaker Jang Donghyuk leaves the party leader's office at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on the afternoon of December 11 last year. This scene symbolizes the breakup between the two. Photo by Yonhap News

Right now, everything is uncertain. The investigation is closing in on Lee Junseok as well. The leader of the Reform New Party is under investigation for allegedly paying for an old opinion poll. No one knows what will happen with the special prosecutor. Even if they talk about going their own way or merging, it's unclear whether that would help them win.Even if they merge, can they really win now? I'm very skeptical.

Kang Jeonae: I don't think the Reform New Party and Han Donghoon's faction will merge. Their support bases are completely different-the Reform New Party is centered on men in their 20s and 30s, while Han Donghoon's fandom is mainly middle-aged women. They're like oil and water.

So Jongseop: Listening to you both, it seems Han Donghoon's prospects are bleak.

Kang Jeonae: He should have run in the party convention. He didn't, and Cho Kyungtae didn't really support him, either. If you look at the posts from Han Donghoon's allies on social media, when they listed who to vote for, Cho Kyungtae wasn't included. Names like Kim Geunsik, Yang Hyangja, and Woo Jaejoon were, but not Cho Kyungtae. Apparently, Cho Kyungtae declared his candidacy before consulting Han Donghoon. The media kept asking if Han Donghoon would support him if he ran, but he never gave a clear answer. Maybe that's why Han Donghoon, during the convention, talked about the need for alliances among reasonable candidates, but never mentioned Cho Kyungtae by name.

So, in the end, by focusing on "avoiding the worst," he ended up at the edge. Although Yang Hyangja and Woo Jaejoon did make it into the leadership, Han Donghoon's faction is likely to face a difficult period for some time.