Victor Cha: "After U.S.-Russia 'No Deal,' Trump Likely to Seek Success at U.S.-South Korea Summit"

Trump Dislikes Consecutive Failures
"President Lee Will Demonstrate He Can Be as Strong a U.S. Partner as Any Conservative"

As U.S. President Donald Trump is widely seen as having failed to achieve any significant diplomatic results at the recent U.S.-Russia summit, there is growing speculation that he will seek clear achievements at the upcoming U.S.-South Korea summit.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Yonhap News Agency

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said on a CSIS-hosted podcast on the 18th (local time) that the U.S.-Russia summit held in Alaska on the 15th "was not a big win for President Trump." He compared the summit to the 2019 Hanoi U.S.-North Korea summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which ended with "no deal."

Cha pointed out that the U.S. and Russian leaders ended the meeting without holding the originally planned luncheon, saying, "This is no different from what President Trump did to Chairman Kim in Hanoi. At that time, he left the summit early, saying there would be no deal." He continued, "President Trump does not like to fail consecutively," and added, "He will probably want to succeed next week. In this respect, it may be a good sign for the U.S.-South Korea summit." He also emphasized that the summit should be interpreted in the context of all other issues involving the United States.

Sid Seiler, Senior Advisor at CSIS, predicted that the atmosphere between President Trump and President Lee Jaemyung at the U.S.-South Korea summit would not be negative. He said, "I think the two leaders will be able to establish a good relationship to some extent," and added, "At the very least, I believe President Lee will be able to present himself as a partner to the U.S. President on par with any conservative leader."

Seiler also said that a "diplomatic disaster" like the White House meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February would not occur. He stated, "President Trump respects South Korea," and added, "President Trump knows the path President Lee Jaemyung has taken to become president, so he understands that Lee is a trustworthy counterpart."

Furthermore, Seiler observed that policy coordination on North Korea could be an outcome of the U.S.-South Korea summit. He assessed that both leaders are willing to pursue summit diplomacy with North Korea, saying, "I think President Trump will feel comfortable siding with President Lee in any efforts to quickly engage with North Korea, and from President Lee's perspective, that would be a successful outcome." However, he pointed out that conflict could arise if President Trump demands a stronger and more public stance from President Lee on containing China.