Ukraine Rejects Trump's Territorial Exchange Proposal: Why Handing Over Donbas Is Difficult [Current Affairs Show]

Trump Proposes Donbas-Southern Coast Exchange:
"Advantageous from a Real Estate Perspective"
Ceasefire Difficult with Only U.S.-Russia Agreement...
U.S. Is Not a Warring Party
Relying Solely on Security Guarantees from Other Countries Is Dangerous...
Independent Diplomacy Is Essential

■ Broadcast: Asia Economy 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: So Jongseop, Political Specialist

■ Producer: Ma Yena PD

■ Guest: Lee Hyunwoo, Reporter

U.S. President Donald Trump has begun talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss key issues such as a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Prior to this summit, President Trump proposed a ceasefire to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky through a territorial exchange: handing over the Donbas region to Russia in return for Ukraine regaining control of southern coastal areas. However, President Zelensky strongly opposed the proposal, leading to growing international controversy.

Trump Proposes Donbas-Southern Coast Exchange: "Advantageous from a Real Estate Perspective"

AP Yonhap News

Currently, Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine's territory, an area roughly equivalent to the size of the Korean Peninsula. Of this, Russia controls 80% of the eastern Donbas region, while Ukraine still holds the remaining 20%.

President Trump's proposal was for Ukraine to cede the 20% of Donbas it still defends to Russia, in exchange for regaining southern coastal regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. He reportedly argued that, both strategically and from a real estate perspective, the coastal areas hold greater value.

However, President Zelensky expressed strong opposition to this idea, stating it was "absolutely unacceptable." Under Ukraine's constitution, treaties that exchange national territory with foreign countries are prohibited, and above all, Ukraine maintains that all of its land is Ukrainian territory under international law.

The importance of the Donbas region for Russia goes far beyond territorial expansion. Comprising Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, this vast area makes up nearly half of Ukraine's total landmass, is rich in iron ore, and has been an industrial hub since the Soviet era, with numerous steel mills and chemical plants. In particular, the region is concentrated with steel industries essential for weapons and tank manufacturing, as well as chemical industries necessary for explosives production, making it directly linked to warfighting capability. It is also a key transportation hub, with all major highways crossing through. If Russia were to fully control Donbas, it would make it much easier to launch attacks on both northern and western Ukraine.

It is reported that there is significant opposition within Russia to this territorial exchange proposal as well. The Russian military has expressed its dissent, questioning the need to trade away hard-won regions like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia when only 20% of Donbas remains under Ukrainian control. As a result, the territorial exchange proposal has been sidelined in the Trump-Putin summit discussions.

Ceasefire Difficult with Only U.S.-Russia Agreement... U.S. Is Not a Warring Party

AFP Yonhap News

Some have raised concerns that, just as South Korea was sidelined during the Korean War armistice despite its opposition, Ukraine could also be excluded from the process if major powers like the U.S. and China take the lead in brokering a ceasefire. However, unlike then, it is difficult for a ceasefire to be achieved solely through U.S.-Russia negotiations in the face of Ukraine's opposition as a direct party to the conflict. During the Korean War, U.S. and UN forces were directly involved, but in the current war, the U.S. and Western countries have not officially participated, providing only weapons and financial support.

The actual warring parties are Ukraine, Russia, and North Korea, which has dispatched troops to support Russia. Therefore, no matter how much pressure the U.S. applies, if Ukraine chooses to resist, there is little the U.S. can do to stop it. European countries also hold positions that differ significantly from that of the U.S., as Ukraine serves as a 'shield' preventing further Russian expansion to the west.

If Ukraine is weakened or Russia regains strength after the war, there is a possibility of the conflict spreading to other European countries. For this reason, European nations have made it clear that they will continue to support Ukraine, even if the U.S. withdraws its support.

Relying Solely on Security Guarantees from Other Countries Is Dangerous... Independent Diplomacy Is Essential

This situation also echoes Ukraine's past experiences. In 1991, at the time of the Soviet Union's dissolution, Ukraine was a military powerhouse with 800,000 troops and around 100 nuclear warheads. However, the U.S. and Western countries promised security guarantees in exchange for disarmament, and Ukraine drastically reduced its military to 200,000 troops, even abolishing conscription in 2013. Yet, when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the promised security guarantees were not upheld.

Ultimately, this has become a case study demonstrating that national security cannot rely solely on other countries and must be backed by the nation's own strength. It also shows that a U.S.-led collective security system is meaningless without America's commitment. As a result, securing firm military security guarantees from the U.S. has emerged as a new challenge for America's allies.

Korea, too, must respond more sensitively to these global developments. The core lesson from this situation is that a solid security posture based on independent defense capabilities must form the foundation of alliance relationships.