Attention on Shifting Pro-Government Bloc Landscape
Impact on Next Year’s Local Election Dynamics
The inclusion of former Cho Kuk Innovation Party leader Cho Kuk on the Liberation Day special pardon list is a variable that could not only reshape the political landscape of the ruling bloc, but also influence the outcome of the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3 next year. Cho's return to politics is widely regarded as a fait accompli. After his release at midnight on the 15th, Cho is expected to meet with party members, supporters, and various figures from different sectors across the country. The party is reportedly planning to hold a national convention around October or November, during which Cho will likely be nominated as party leader.
Kim Sunmin, acting leader of the Innovation Party, stated at a press conference on the 11th, "With the pardon and reinstatement of former leader Cho, we have gained powerful momentum for reform." Cho's options now include running in a by-election to re-enter the National Assembly or participating in next year's June local elections. There are already calls within and outside the party for him to run in the Seoul or Busan mayoral races. Even if he does not run himself, if he leads the election campaign to victory, it could enhance not only the Innovation Party's presence but also its political stature.
However, the relationship with the Democratic Party, which often aligns with the Innovation Party on major political issues, remains a variable. Next year's local elections will also serve as a crucial test for the ruling Democratic Party, as it will be the first nationwide election since President Lee Jaemyung took office. It remains to be seen whether the Innovation Party will field its own candidates or provide momentum for political realignment, such as a merger with the Democratic Party. From the Democratic Party's perspective, as seen in the Damyang county governor by-election last April, they now face a formidable competitor in the Honam region. At the same time, it would be burdensome for the Innovation Party to position itself strictly as a check against the Democratic Party. The significant overlap in the support bases of both parties is also a concern. While not immediately apparent, the issue of a potential merger could become a major topic in political circles in the second half of this year.
The presidential office is emphasizing that President Lee Jaemyung's close associates were excluded from the pardons, highlighting the nature of the pardons as being focused on national unity and public welfare. On the opposition side, former lawmakers Hong Moonjong, Jung Chanmin, and Shim Hakbong were among those pardoned and reinstated. These individuals had been mentioned in messages regarding pardon requests that Song Eonseok, emergency committee chair and floor leader of the People Power Party, sent to Kang Hunsik, Chief Presidential Secretary. Kang Yoojeong, spokesperson for the presidential office, stated, "The decision on political pardons was made after comprehensively listening to opinions from religious circles, civic groups, and both the ruling and opposition parties." Kang further explained, "President Lee agreed with the Ministry of Justice's pardon plan, which aimed to meet the demands of the era for national unity and to bring warmth to the people's livelihoods and the economy."
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