Putin May Seek to Dismantle Ukraine's Defensive Line at Trump Summit

An Obstacle to Russia's Territorial Ambitions
Ceding It Would Greatly Favor Further Invasion

There are growing speculations that Russian President Vladimir Putin may use a summit with US President Donald Trump as a stepping stone for further invasion of Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo by AFP

The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made this analysis on August 10 (local time), highlighting the risks Ukraine would face if Russia were to fully seize control of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

It remains unclear what specific demands President Putin will make during the summit with President Trump scheduled for August 15. However, various versions of reported demands circulating in the media all share a common element: the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the entire Donetsk region.

The ISW pointed out that completely conceding Donetsk to Russia would mean Ukraine abandoning its "fortress belt" infrastructure, which has been crucial in resisting the Russian invasion. Since 2014, Ukraine has used a defensive line consisting of western Donetsk cities and towns stretching from Sloviansk to Kostyantynivka to fend off offensives by Russia and pro-Russian separatists.

Even after launching its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has continued a war of attrition against Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line, incurring heavy casualties. The ISW analyzed, "If Ukraine concedes the remaining parts of Donetsk as a precondition for a ceasefire without a definitive peace agreement to end the war, Russian forces would gain an extremely advantageous position to resume their offensive under far better conditions, avoiding the hardships of ground combat."

This defensive line, known as Ukraine's "fortress belt," stretches approximately 50 kilometers along the Kostyantynivka-Sloviansk highway running north-south through Donetsk. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk make up about the northern half of the fortress belt and serve as logistical hubs for Ukrainian forces defending the entire Donetsk region.

Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka comprise the southern half of the defensive line and have served as bases for territorial defense and recapture operations by Ukrainian forces. The ISW explained, "Ukrainian forces have controlled these cities since July 2014, spending 11 years strengthening the fortress belt and investing time, money, and effort into building significant defense industry infrastructure." The ISW also emphasized that the Donetsk fortress belt remains a major obstacle to President Putin's efforts to expand occupied territories within Ukraine.

At a White House press conference on August 8, President Trump suggested the possibility of territorial compromise by stating that "some territorial exchange will occur" in relation to the summit with Russia.