Cabinet Reshuffle and Party Executive Appointments Highlighted as 'Additional Pressure' Amid Calls for Ishiba's Resignation

After the 'Recall Rule', the Second Hurdle...
"Former Prime Minister Suga Also Gave Up Re-election Due to Personnel Issues"

Within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), calls for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to step down continue, and there is growing speculation that the upcoming appointments of party executives and a cabinet reshuffle, both scheduled for September when their terms end, will serve as additional pressure for his resignation.

According to local media reports on August 9, Hiroshi Moriyama, the LDP Secretary-General who has played a key role in Ishiba's administration, has indicated that he may resign after the party's General Council completes its evaluation of the reasons for the LDP's defeat in last month's House of Councillors election.

In this context, the Asahi Shimbun reported, "Other senior party executives are also expected to resign," adding, "In particular, if Secretary-General Moriyama, who has served as a central pillar in negotiations with opposition parties under the current House of Representatives configuration where the LDP lacks a majority, steps down, it would be a significant blow." The analysis suggests that it will not be easy to find a successor who can support the administration to the same extent.

The newspaper also noted, "The Prime Minister will soon have to proceed with party executive appointments and a cabinet reshuffle, but there are predictions within the party that no one will agree to take the posts." It went on to recall that former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who announced he would not run for re-election as party president and gave up on a second term after only one year in office in 2021, "originally intended to seek re-election but gave up after realizing he could not secure intra-party cooperation due to personnel issues." The newspaper predicted, "The crisis of resignation will continue around the appointments of party executives and the cabinet reshuffle, both of which are set to conclude at the end of September."

The Mainichi Shimbun also reported that, in addition to Secretary-General Moriyama, General Council Chairperson Shunichi Suzuki, Policy Research Council Chairperson Itsunori Onodera, and Election Strategy Committee Chairperson Seiji Kihara?the so-called 'Big Four' of the party?have all expressed their intention to resign to those around them. The report stated, "If they all leave at once, there are predictions that the Ishiba administration will be pushed to a dead end."

Before addressing the personnel issues, Prime Minister Ishiba must first demonstrate political skill to prevent an early party presidential election from being triggered under the 'recall rule' (Article 6, Clause 4 of the party rules) in order to continue his term. The LDP's 'recall rule' allows for an extraordinary presidential election even during the president's term if a majority of party lawmakers and prefectural chapter representatives request it. At the joint meeting of LDP members from both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors held at party headquarters the previous day, lawmakers pressing for Ishiba's resignation proposed and adopted a measure to initiate procedures to confirm whether an early presidential election should be held under this rule.

However, there has never been an early presidential election conducted under this rule, and there are no detailed regulations in place. As a result, the meeting decided to entrust the relevant procedures to the party's Presidential Election Management Committee. Although the committee is supposed to have 11 members, there are currently 6 vacancies, so filling these positions will be the first step.

Ichiro Aisawa, chairperson of the Presidential Election Management Committee, stated, "We will take into account the schedule of the General Council, which is targeting the end of August," and indicated that the process to confirm support or opposition to an early presidential election would begin after the latter part of this month.

According to the 'recall rule', a total of 342 people?295 party lawmakers and 47 prefectural chapter representatives?will be asked to vote, and if a majority of 172 support the motion, an early presidential election can be held. It is also reported that, under the rules, Prime Minister Ishiba would be eligible to run again.

After the meeting, Prime Minister Ishiba repeatedly signaled his intention to refuse to resign when speaking to reporters, and regarding the possibility of the 'recall rule' being invoked, said, "It will proceed according to party rules," and added, "I cannot comment further here."