The Limits of 'Extended Deterrence and Denuclearization': What Is the Future of South Korea's Nuclear Security? [New Book]

The First Volume of the "Korea Nuclear Security Project Series" Released
Calls for Securing and Ultimately Possessing Nuclear Potential
Four Volumes to Be Published by Next Year, Presenting New Discourse and Strategies

The Korea Nuclear Security Strategy Forum (hereafter referred to as the Forum, led by Jung Sungjang) has launched the "Korea Nuclear Security Project Series" as a practical alternative to prevent nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula caused by North Korea's miscalculation, by achieving a nuclear balance between South and North Korea. The Forum has published the first book in this series and plans to release a total of four volumes by the first half of next year, presenting new discourse and strategies to guide South Korea from securing nuclear potential to ultimately possessing its own nuclear weapons.

Since around April 2022, North Korea has deployed tactical nuclear weapons to the frontlines, conducted nuclear strike drills targeting South Korea, and has been increasing its number of nuclear warheads "exponentially." Amidst dramatic changes in the international order, the United States has made deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan its top diplomatic and security priority, sparking debate over the strategic flexibility of US Forces Korea. The US now intends to utilize US Forces Korea to contain China as well. As a result, South Korea is now in a position where it must take the lead in responding to North Korea's threats. The Republic of Korea faces the difficult task of adapting to changes in the nature of the US-ROK alliance while strengthening its own national capabilities.

According to various public opinion polls, more than 70% of South Koreans support nuclear self-reliance (possessing indigenous nuclear weapons), and nearly 80% support securing nuclear potential. This indicates that the majority of the public recognizes the limitations of the two main "legacy nuclear politics discourses": the conservative camp's excessive faith in US extended deterrence and the progressive camp's unrealistic expectations for North Korean denuclearization.

Approximately 50 domestic and international experts contributed to the writing of the "Korea Nuclear Security Project Series." Their areas of expertise are diverse, including international politics, international law, regional studies (North Korea, the United States, China, Japan, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, Central and South America, etc.), military science, leadership, nuclear engineering, and protection studies. These experts, regardless of their political leanings, share a consensus on the need for bipartisan cooperation in diplomacy and security. Participants in this project also include nationals from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and Australia.

On September 13, 2024, Kim Jongun, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, conducted an on-site inspection of the nuclear weapons research institute and the weapons-grade nuclear material production facility. Photo by Yonhap News

The first volume, published this time, addresses the necessity and strategy for South Korea's independent nuclear armament and the issue of securing nuclear potential. It demonstrates, through primary and secondary North Korea-related sources, that North Korea's nuclear use threats could be real. The book also analyzes North Korea's missile threats using empirical data and numerical analysis, and examines the strengths and weaknesses of South Korea's three-axis system designed to counter North Korean missiles. It argues that South Korea must revise the US-ROK Nuclear Agreement to achieve a level of nuclear potential comparable to Japan. The book also presents a concrete step-by-step strategy for South Korea's nuclear armament, stating that the best virtuous cycle can be achieved when nuclear self-reliance is pursued in parallel with the transfer of wartime operational control.

The upcoming second volume will cover strategies for persuading the international community regarding South Korea's independent nuclear armament and tasks for bipartisan cooperation. The third volume, to be published next year, will delve into nuclear strategy and nuclear command and control systems, while the fourth volume will focus on nuclear potential and nuclear submarines. This series is a must-read for anyone concerned about North Korea's increasingly sophisticated nuclear capabilities and the instability of the Northeast Asian situation symbolized by the "North Korea-Russia alliance."