"Kim Yo-jong's Statement" Is a Decisive Declaration
South Korea: "One People" VS North Korea: "Separate Countries"
"Need to Secure Nuclear Potential at the Level of Japan"
In a phone interview with Asia Economy's 'AK Radio' on July 29, Cheong Seong-chang, Deputy Director of the Sejong Institute, said, "If you want to have a dialogue with North Korea, you must change Kim Jong-un's calculus," and added, "If we unilaterally accept North Korea's demands, there could be talk of a 'Kim Yo-jong command law.' We must demand something in return and obtain it."
North Korea expressed its position for the first time 54 days after the inauguration of the Lee Jaemyung administration. How do you assess this?
The Lee Jaemyung administration wants to resume inter-Korean dialogue by halting leaflet distribution and suspending broadcasts toward North Korea. However, North Korea has made it clear that it has no interest whatsoever in resuming inter-Korean talks.
Does this mean North Korea has no intention to talk with us?
Yes. Our government pursues reconciliation and cooperation between the two Koreas from a nationalist perspective. However, North Korea is most afraid of the influx of South Korean culture, or Hallyu, into the North. If the power elite or the public in North Korea develop admiration for South Korea, it could become the most significant destabilizing factor for the North Korean regime. That is why North Korea does not want to engage in dialogue with the South. Since the South keeps proposing dialogue, North Korea felt the need to put a stop to it. That is why Kim Yo-jong, as Kim Jong-un's spokesperson, personally issued the statement.
Kim Yo-jong's statement said, "We have been able to break away from the tiresome and uncomfortable history bound by rhetorical expressions of being the same people." Should we see this as North Korea reemphasizing its 'two-state theory'?
Yes. The Lee Jaemyung administration approaches North Korea from the perspective that the two Koreas are one people. If we are one people, it ultimately leads to the conclusion that we should be unified someday. However, apart from nuclear weapons, North Korea has nothing to boast about to the South. Young North Koreans develop admiration for South Korea by watching South Korean dramas and movies, and some defect to the South, which acts as a destabilizing factor for the regime. In this situation, North Korea is continuously educating its people that the South and North are now completely different countries, like China or Russia. From North Korea's perspective, the South's proposal for dialogue is an interference.
It seems North Korea is telling us to change our framework and clearly recognize that inter-Korean relations have changed.
Kim Jong-un has already declared that the two Koreas are no longer the same people, but two hostile states. He is saying, "Do not make North Korea uncomfortable by using past approaches. Do not harass us." Our good-faith proposals for dialogue sound like stalking to North Korea. They are saying, "I just want to live quietly as strangers, so let's not meet anymore."
After the Lee Jaemyung administration took office, loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea were suspended, and North Korea responded positively, giving the impression that inter-Korean relations were warming...
These measures certainly help ease tensions between the two Koreas. The Lee Jaemyung administration's reconciliation policy toward North Korea is not meaningless. It is useful in its own way. However, there are clear limitations to bringing North Korea to the negotiating or dialogue table. If we want dialogue with North Korea, we must change Kim Jong-un's calculus.
What do you mean by that?
North Korea learned a lot from its experiences with the Moon Jae-in administration. The Moon administration, with pure intentions, proposed an end-of-war declaration. However, it failed to clearly explain what would change or what benefits North Korea would gain from such a declaration. It also said that the end-of-war declaration would be the gateway to North Korea's denuclearization. Since North Korea does not want to give up its nuclear weapons, it is not interested in the end-of-war declaration either. If, while North Korea retains its nuclear weapons, we accept its demand to halt the South Korea-US joint military exercises, wouldn't that increase anxiety and internal conflict within our society?
Unification Minister Jeong Dong-young said he would suggest to President Lee Jaemyung that the upcoming 'Ulchi Freedom Shield' South Korea-US joint military exercises be adjusted.
If the joint exercises are suspended, many people will think that the South Korea-US alliance is being dismantled or weakened. Accepting North Korea's demands just because they ask for it is a highly inappropriate approach. If North Korea makes a demand, we must also demand something in return and obtain it. Both the view that the joint exercises must never be stopped and the view that we should comply with North Korea's demands are inappropriate. If North Korea demands the suspension of joint exercises, we should at least obtain the resumption of inspections of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. If we unilaterally accept North Korea's demands, there could be talk of a 'Kim Yo-jong command law.'
Some say that the mere fact that North Korea has responded at all is positive.
There are various ways to ignore something. One way is to simply pretend not to hear. But sometimes, after hearing something repeatedly and being unable to tolerate it any longer, a statement is made. Kim Yo-jong's statement this time is the latter. Conservative governments tend to excessively focus on sanctions and pressure, while progressive governments tend to focus too much on dialogue. We need to move beyond these biases and approach North Korea with a bigger picture in mind.
What should our approach be going forward?
We need to closely coordinate with the United States on how to conduct negotiations with North Korea. The problem is that there is no strategic thinking at all. Supporting North Korea-US dialogue?does that necessarily benefit us? In the past, after President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un met, President Trump unilaterally suspended the South Korea-US joint military exercises. Was that good for us? There is no big-picture plan for how to persuade the United States and North Korea.
We also need a realistic approach. North Korea has even enshrined in its constitution that it will never give up its nuclear weapons. If we keep pushing for denuclearization with such a North Korea, will they respond to dialogue? We need a three-stage approach: first, freeze North Korea's nuclear capabilities; second, reduce them; and third, achieve denuclearization. Even starting with a freeze and achieving some reduction would be a significant achievement.
It seems the current trend differs from the stance taken by our government.
South Korea's progressive forces, in some ways, are excessively focused on dialogue and tend to cling to event-driven summits. While easing tensions is good, North Korea is simultaneously increasing its nuclear arsenal. Easing our vigilance toward North Korea does not necessarily benefit our security.
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That is why there is talk that, even if not nuclear weapons, we should at least secure nuclear potential.
That's correct. While pursuing tension reduction with North Korea, we should at least secure nuclear potential, even if we do not go as far as nuclear armament. Even if US forces in Korea are reduced, if we have nuclear potential similar to Japan, our political leaders could decide to develop nuclear weapons within a few months. This would make the public feel less anxious.
It seems the atmosphere between North Korea and the US is not bad.
The United States actually wants to negotiate nuclear reduction with North Korea. Both President Trump and the Secretary of Defense have made remarks recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state. Even achieving a freeze is not easy now. South Korea and the US must agree on what to give and what to get from North Korea. Our government must take the lead in setting this direction. The North Korea issue should be led by us, persuading the United States and aligning interests.
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