[Column] The Education Crisis Triggered by Declining Birth Rates and the Dilemma of the High School Credit System

The decline in birth rates is not merely a statistical issue. It directly leads to a sharp decrease in the school-age population, signaling a serious educational crisis that threatens the very existence of local schools. This reality is already clearly reflected in the numbers.

Sangkwon Kim, Former Director of Education Bureau at Gyeongnam Provincial Office of Education.

According to data from Statistics Korea, the number of births in Gyeongnam dropped sharply from about 19,000 in 2019 to approximately 13,000 in 2024. This represents a decrease of nearly 30% in just five years. Data from the Gyeongnam Office of Education shows that, as of 2024, the total number of students in Gyeongnam is about 395,000, with approximately 171,000 elementary school students. There are a total of 508 elementary schools in the province. Even with a simple calculation, it is highly likely that, six years from now, when the children born in 2024 enter elementary school, the number of elementary students will fall below 100,000. This means that nearly half of the elementary schools in the province could face a crisis due to a lack of students.

The first areas to be hit will be schools in county-level regions. Currently, the 10 county areas in Gyeongnam each have around 15 elementary schools, 7 middle schools, and 5 high schools. However, looking at the number of births in 2024, except for Changnyeong (138), Haman (145), and Geochang (211), the remaining seven counties each have fewer than 90 births. This is not simply a matter of small numbers; it raises a fundamental question of whether the current school system can be maintained as it is.

Of course, it may be possible to minimize school closures through measures such as adjusting the number of students per class or revitalizing small schools. However, the shock of a rapid population decline on regional education overall is by no means insignificant. Furthermore, the 'High School Credit System,' which will be fully implemented from 2025, poses an even greater threat to rural high schools. Although the High School Credit System allows students to choose and complete subjects on their own, small agricultural and fishing village high schools are, in reality, unable to offer a variety of subjects due to a lack of teachers and educational infrastructure. As a result, students' options for career paths are limited, and educational disparities are bound to widen further.

If this situation continues, the High School Credit System could become an 'impossible system' in rural areas, and educational inequality between the capital region and non-capital regions, as well as between urban and rural areas, will become even more severe. The crisis in local education is a critical issue that could lead to the disappearance of entire regions. What is needed now is not just supplementary or stopgap measures, but fundamental solutions and a complete transformation.

Through my 37 years in the teaching profession, I have witnessed this issue firsthand, and I would like to propose several practical solutions as follows.

First, bold investment in public education and after-school programs. Schools are not just places for curriculum education but are the centers of local communities. By expanding various after-school activities, career experience programs, and learning support programs, we must create an environment where students can remain at school. For this, educational authorities and local governments must invest aggressively in both budget and personnel.

Second, the establishment and utilization of 'online schools.' By building a digital-based online school operated directly by the Gyeongnam Office of Education, even small schools should be able to offer a variety of subjects and be recognized under the High School Credit System. This would function similarly to EBS, but by providing lectures from both excellent local teachers and instructors from the capital region, it can help reduce educational disparities. This would establish a foundation where students can learn according to their career interests and aptitudes without spatial constraints.

Third, improvement of laws and systems for flexible integration between public and private schools. In the current situation of a sharp decline in student numbers, the dichotomous distinction between public and private schools can actually lead to duplication and competition, undermining the quality of education. Institutional foundations must be established to enable cooperation and integration between public and private schools, and ways must be opened to operate educational resources efficiently.

Education must thrive for local communities to survive. The educational crisis brought on by declining birth rates is not simply the problem of one institution or individual schools. It is a critical challenge that will determine the survival and future of the provinces, and closing the educational gap is a key task for realizing the 'Era of Local Communities.' Now is the time for both local and national governments to work together to devise fundamental solutions.

Kim Sangkwon / Former Director of Education, Gyeongnam Office of Education