Number of Deaths Surpasses Births by 600,000
Birth Rate Plummets... Government Floods Country with Low Birth Rate Policies
As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, the number of war casualties has surged, resulting in more deaths than births annually. With the population decline accelerating, the Russian government is thoroughly concealing the number of war casualties. Even the birth rate, which had rebounded since the early 2000s, has plummeted, prompting the government to hastily introduce various low birth rate countermeasures.
Number of deaths exceeds births by 600,000... Population decline accelerates
According to Bloomberg, on July 8 (local time), the Russian Federal State Statistics Service released a socio-economic report that excluded demographic data. Since the first quarter of this year, official population statistics have not been made public. Russian demographer Alexey Raksha told Bloomberg, "Since March 2025, official demographic statistics have virtually disappeared," adding, "The complete data is now provided only to a select group of government-affiliated experts."
There is growing suspicion that the Russian government is withholding demographic data because the population decline is worsening. Earlier this year, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service reported that the number of deaths in Russia last year was 1.82 million, more than 600,000 higher than the number of births, which was 1.22 million. As a result, the overall population decline increased by 20% compared to 2023.
The sharp rise in deaths is attributed to the prolonged war in Ukraine. Since the war began in February 2022, it has entered its fourth year, but a breakthrough for a ceasefire remains elusive. According to the BBC, Western and Ukrainian intelligence agencies estimate that Russian military deaths range from at least 120,000 to as many as 250,000. However, the Russian government has yet to officially disclose the number of casualties since the war began.
Russian birth rate plummets... Excessive and impractical low birth rate policies
Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting an obstetrics and gynecology clinic in the Kaliningrad region in 2011. Russian Federal Government website.
The birth rate has also sharply declined as large numbers of men have been conscripted and sent to the Ukrainian front. There are growing concerns that the birth rate could drop again to levels seen immediately after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.
According to TASS, Russia's birth rate last year was 1.40, continuing a decline since 1.76 in 2016. The birth rate in Russia was 2.01 in 1989, just before the collapse of the Soviet Union, but then plummeted to 1.16 by 1999. After President Vladimir Putin came to power and restored political and economic stability, the birth rate rebounded.
The Russian government is implementing a flurry of measures to prevent another sharp decline in the birth rate and to raise it back to 1.6 within the next 10 years. For example, if female students in middle school or above give birth, they are given a one-time payment of 100,000 rubles (about 1.75 million won), and schools are running pilot programs to ensure that students' studies are not disrupted. In workplaces, various birth support programs and cash incentives for employees are also rapidly increasing.
In addition, the government is introducing coercive policies such as a childlessness tax and legislation banning the promotion of child-free lifestyles. The sale of contraceptives in hospitals and pharmacies has been drastically reduced, and the state is even encouraging sexual activity in the workplace. Last November, Evgeny Shestopalov, the health minister of Primorye Krai, was criticized both inside and outside Russia after he said, "Take part in solving the birth rate problem during your work breaks," and "Life passes by too quickly for Russians to have any reason not to do this."
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