Musk Challenges the U.S. Two-Party System... Will the America Party Succeed? [AK Radio]

No History of Third-Party Victories in the U.S.
Concerns Over Potential Split in Republican Support

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, has caused a stir in the American political scene by suddenly announcing the formation of a third party. On July 5, Musk declared the launch of the "America Party" and claimed to have filed with authorities on July 6. However, the specific plans for party operations or policy direction remain shrouded in secrecy. This announcement is drawing even more attention because it comes just over a month after Musk resigned as head of the Government Efficiency Department and stated he would focus solely on running Tesla. The move is especially notable as it comes amid escalating tensions with President Trump, raising questions about the background of Musk's decision.

Musk's plan to launch the America Party remains highly ambiguous. He expressed his ambition to secure 2 to 3 seats in the Senate and 8 to 10 seats in the House in next year's November U.S. midterm elections, thereby forming a third party and playing a nationwide kingmaker role. However, he has not revealed who will join the party, which politicians he plans to recruit, or what the party's core pledges will be. With just about a year left until the midterms, critics argue that at the very least, the founding members should be disclosed to have a realistic chance of winning seats.

For these reasons, skepticism about Musk's true intentions is growing both inside and outside the U.S. political sphere. Many analysts believe it remains unclear whether Musk genuinely intends to shake up the American political landscape by establishing a third force, or if this is simply a pressure tactic aimed at the Trump administration.

There has never been a case in U.S. political history where a third-party candidate has won the presidential election. Experts generally agree that the American electoral system, which is not based on direct voting but rather an electoral college, and the winner-takes-all system in each state, leave virtually no room for a third party. Looking at past third-party attempts, in the 1912 U.S. presidential election, former President Theodore Roosevelt left the Republican Party to form the Progressive Party and ran as its candidate, but he lost, resulting in the Democrats taking power. Similarly, George Wallace of the American Independent Party failed in 1968.

The most recent example is Ross Perot in 1992, who ran as an independent and garnered more than 18% of the popular vote, but failed to win a single electoral vote due to the winner-takes-all system. This is because the laws of each state are tailored to a two-party system. In some states, candidates from outside the Republican and Democratic parties must collect at least 20,000 signatures to register. As a result, many minor parties such as the Green Party are unable to field candidates in several states. The party name "America Party" proposed by Musk could also be problematic, as some states prohibit the use of the word "America" on ballots.

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Given these realities, the prevailing analysis is that Musk's move to form a third party is motivated less by politics and more by business, specifically as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Trump administration. Musk has only been involved in politics for about a year, and during his tenure at the Government Efficiency Department, he failed to maintain good relationships with senior Trump administration officials or key aides. In fact, he became notorious for clashing with President Trump's inner circle and carrying out various departmental restructurings. Recent polls indicate that over 55% of Americans now view Musk negatively.

Experts believe it is difficult to see Musk as seriously considering a political career under these circumstances. Instead, the more convincing interpretation is that he declared his political ambitions to strengthen his negotiating position with the Trump administration and to find a breakthrough for his struggling business. In reality, Tesla is facing a significant decline in sales. In the U.S. and Europe, anti-Tesla boycotts have persisted for nearly a year, and even in China, where sales had previously been strong, Tesla has seen seven consecutive months of declining sales.

The biggest issue is that Tesla has not released any new car models. The company has been focusing on launching only lower-priced versions of existing models, which has led to considerable disappointment among Chinese consumers. In contrast, Chinese electric vehicle companies are continuously launching new models, such as vehicles equipped with autonomous driving systems, electric cars with interiors converted into movie theaters, and models featuring various convenience facilities. Tesla, with its models unchanged for two to three years, is losing its competitive edge.

Additionally, as the Trump administration moves to restrict electric vehicle subsidies, some analysts believe Musk has unveiled the third-party card to force a showdown with President Trump. The calculation is that even if President Trump ignores Musk now, as the midterm elections approach, he will inevitably have to pay attention to how Musk's disruptive tactics might impact the outcome.

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Trump's close associates also remember that Musk joined the Trump camp at the last minute in the previous presidential election and played a key role in the victory. They see Musk as a potential threat who, even if he does not win himself, could significantly hinder the Republican Party if he becomes an adversary. Like it or not, Musk is a globally recognized figure with enormous financial resources. There are concerns that, just as he supported President Trump from behind the scenes, if he were to support someone else both financially and strategically, the impact could be substantial.

Notably, the proportion of independents in the U.S. has risen to around 40%, and even during the recent tax cut passage, a considerable number of conservative figures opposed the measure. This suggests that Musk's political alignment could significantly alter the midterm election landscape. If Musk's party formation announcement is a business strategy, and the Trump administration continues to ignore him, it could become a new variable. This means that, in a situation where the Republican Party has been overwhelmingly dominant over the Democrats, a new factor could emerge.

In fact, there are various possible scenarios: the America Party could be established and win seats, it could serve as a platform to recruit new political figures, or it could even form an alliance with the Democratic Party. In any of these cases, the Republican Party would be forced to pay close attention. Furthermore, if Musk continues to negotiate with President Trump over issues such as electric vehicle subsidies or tariffs with China, these negotiations could ultimately impact trade tariffs with other countries as well.

Ultimately, whether Musk's announcement of party formation stems from genuine political ambition or a clever business strategy will only become clear with time. However, the move alone is enough to make President Trump take notice. Such changes in American politics could also affect South Korea and the rest of the world, which is why there is intense interest in Musk's next steps.