[Good Morning Market] "U.S. Stocks Rise on Trade Negotiation Hopes... Korea Eyes June Export Results"

Amid rising expectations for progress in trade negotiations, the U.S. stock markets in New York all closed higher, and on July 1, the Korean stock market is expected to see sectoral differences in gains depending on the June export results to be announced before the market opens.

On June 30 (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is focused on blue-chip stocks, closed at 44,094.77, up 275.5 points (0.63%) from the previous trading day on the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500, which tracks large-cap stocks, rose 31.88 points (0.52%) to 6,204.95, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 96.27 points (0.47%) to finish at 20,369.73. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set new all-time highs for the second consecutive day following the previous session.

Investors were optimistic that trade negotiations between the United States and major trading partners would make progress before the expiration of the mutual tariff suspension on July 8. In particular, relief spread after Canada withdrew its plan to impose a digital tax on domestic and foreign IT companies on June 29, just two days after criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, and resumed trade talks with the United States.

By stock, Apple rose 2.03% on news that it is considering an artificial intelligence (AI) technology partnership with OpenAI and others. Microsoft (MS) and Nvidia also gained 0.3% and 0.15%, respectively. Tesla weakened by 1.89% due to concerns that President Trump’s tax cut bill could make tax credits for electric vehicles and other clean energy less favorable. Moderna climbed 1.58% after announcing that its experimental flu vaccine showed positive results in late-stage clinical trials.

On the 30th of last month (local time), traders were working at the New York Stock Exchange in the United States. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Regarding the outlook for the Korean stock market on this day, Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "News of record highs in the U.S. stock market, driven by expectations for tariff negotiations and Apple’s strength, will act as upward pressure," adding, "The June export results for Korea, scheduled to be announced before the market opens, could determine the momentum for gains by sector."

He further analyzed, "Given the continued expectations for unique domestic policies such as the Commercial Act amendment, or the solid stock prices of leading sectors such as nuclear power, electric power equipment, shipbuilding, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), it is difficult to conclude that the upward trend in the domestic stock market has come to an end."

Kim Ji-won, a researcher at KB Securities, stated, "Both the domestic and U.S. stock markets are facing pressure from short-term highs, but the upward momentum remains, so the rally continues." He added, "This week, key issues such as the U.S. tax cut vote, Samsung Electronics’ preliminary earnings next week, the Commercial Act amendment, and U.S. tariff negotiations are all lined up."

Kim also commented, "Policy expectations and favorable supply-demand conditions remain valid," but cautioned, "Since there may be a short-term period of absorbing selling pressure, it is important to pay attention to changes in earnings estimates and respond accordingly."