"The 'Tokara Rule'... Fear of a Major Earthquake Spreads on Social Media
'Difficult to Believe Small Earthquakes Can Trigger a Major Quake'"
As a series of small earthquakes have been occurring in the Tokara Islands, located south of Kagoshima Prefecture in Kyushu, Japan, fears related to a possible major earthquake are spreading.
On June 29, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that from June 21 until 6:00 PM the previous day, a total of 525 earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 1 or higher were observed in the Tokara Islands. In the Japan Meteorological Agency's seismic intensity scale, "shindo" refers to a relative concept that indicates how people in the area feel the earthquake and how much surrounding objects shake, rather than the absolute magnitude. A seismic intensity of 1 is the weakest, while 7 is the strongest.
On this day alone, more than 40 earthquakes occurred in the Tokara Islands. The largest magnitude recorded was 4.7, and in some areas, a seismic intensity of 4 was detected, which is strong enough to surprise most people. The area around the Tokara Islands is close to the Ryukyu Trench, where the Philippine Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate, and is known for its frequent crustal movement due to the presence of volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes. In December 2021 and September 2023, more than 300 small earthquakes occurred in succession in this region.
However, as a swarm of small earthquakes continued to occur in the Tokara Islands, a rumor known as the "Tokara Rule" began circulating on social networking services (SNS). According to this rule, if earthquakes occur consecutively near the Tokara Islands, a major earthquake will subsequently occur in another location.
Experts dismissed this as lacking any scientific basis. Professor Hisayoshi Yokose of Kumamoto University explained to the Mainichi Shimbun, "All of these earthquakes are small in scale," and added, "It is difficult to believe that earthquakes of this magnitude could trigger a massive earthquake." Professor Junichi Nakajima of Tokyo University of Science also told the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), "Since Japan is prone to earthquakes, it is not uncommon for earthquakes to occur in other locations during a swarm of earthquakes," and emphasized, "There is no scientific evidence linking the Tokara earthquakes to a major earthquake." Experts assert that, with current scientific technology, it is impossible to predict earthquakes accurately.
Japanese manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, who is known for predicting the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, included content in his work "The Complete Edition of the Future I Saw" stating that a major earthquake will occur in July this year. Mainichi Shimbun, Japan
Alongside the "Tokara Rule," fears are being further amplified by Japanese manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, who is known for predicting the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. In his work "The Complete Edition of the Future I Saw," he included content stating that a major earthquake would occur in July this year. After Ryo Tatsuki's interview, the Japan Meteorological Agency also warned, "There is a risk of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough region of southern mainland Japan within the next 30 years," which added weight to his prediction. As a result, the number of visitors from Hong Kong to Japan in May decreased by 11.2% compared to the same month last year, while the number of Korean tourists visiting Japan last month reached an all-time high.
Since earthquakes occur frequently in Japan, earthquake preparedness systems are well established. However, to prepare for disasters such as earthquakes that may occur while traveling, it is recommended to: identify evacuation areas in advance; understand how to return home in an emergency; check the location of emergency exits in accommodations; carry important documents such as your passport; and prepare emergency supplies.
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