[New York Stock Exchange] Market Pauses as Middle East Ceasefire Digested... Nvidia Reclaims Top Market Cap Spot

Digesting Israel-Iran Ceasefire, Market Moves Sideways
Nvidia Hits Record High, Reclaims Top Spot in Market Capitalization
International Oil Prices Rebound Slightly... WTI Up 0.9%
Focus Returns to Tariffs, Interest Rate Path, and Tax Cut Plans
Powell: "Difficult to Predict Tariff Impact... Cautious Approach Needed"

The three major indices of the New York Stock Exchange closed mixed in a narrow range on the 25th (local time). As the ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased concerns over the Middle East crisis, the market saw a pause in momentum following short-term gains over the past two days. International oil prices rose slightly, and Nvidia, the leading artificial intelligence (AI) stock, hit an all-time high, reclaiming the top spot in market capitalization.

Reuters Yonhap News

On this day, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session at 42,982.43, down 106.59 points (0.25%) from the previous trading day. The large-cap S&P 500 index slipped by 0.02 points (less than 0.1%) to 6,092.16, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose 61.02 points (0.31%) to close at 19,973.55.

By stock, Nvidia surged 4.33%. Buying was fueled after Loop Capital raised its target price from $175 to $250. Nvidia closed at $154.31 per share, marking a new all-time high and regaining the number one spot in market capitalization, surpassing Microsoft (MS). Alphabet, Google's parent company, rose 2.24%, and AMD climbed 3.59%. Bumble, a mobile dating application company, soared 25.14% after announcing plans to cut 30% of its workforce.

The market, which had seen buying inflows over the past two days due to easing Middle East geopolitical tensions, showed a mixed trend in a narrow range as short-term rally fatigue set in. The S&P 500 index, a bellwether for the US stock market, has jumped more than 2% this week. The easing of Middle East tensions led to a 13% plunge in international oil prices this week, which in turn boosted the stock market. International oil prices, which had returned to levels seen just before Israel's airstrike on Iran the previous day, rose slightly on this day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $64.92 per barrel, up $0.55 (0.9%) from the previous session, while Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, finished at $67.68 per barrel, up $0.54 (0.8%) from the previous day.

Investors, after digesting the news of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, continue to monitor the Middle East situation. US President Donald Trump, at a press conference following the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in The Hague, Netherlands, said, "I will talk with Iran next week," signaling his intention to resume US-Iran denuclearization talks that had been suspended due to Israel's attack on Iran. Regarding the nuclear agreement, he stated, "We could completely destroy it (the nuclear program), so the agreement itself does not feel that important," but added, "I don't think it's necessary, but if there is a document, it's not a bad thing. We could sign it," leaving open the possibility.

As tensions in the Middle East subside, previous market drivers such as tariffs, the interest rate path, and tax cut plans are coming back into focus.

With only two weeks left until July 8, when the US reciprocal tariff grace period ends, the market is watching to see whether a new trade deal will be reached or the grace period will be extended. Earlier, President Trump implemented a basic 10% tariff on the entire world in early April, and granted a 90-day grace period for country-specific reciprocal tariffs, taking into account each trading partner's trade barriers, except for China.

The timing of the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s rate cut is also a key point of interest. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appearing before the US Senate for the semiannual monetary policy report, said, "To be honest, it is very difficult to predict in advance how much the tariff burden will be reflected in inflation," adding, "It could be large or small, so we need to approach this cautiously. As those responsible for price stability, we must manage that risk." This reaffirmed a cautious stance on monetary easing. Powell also responded to a question in the US House the previous day about the possibility of a rate cut in July by saying, "The economy is still strong, so there is no need to rush," effectively ruling out a rate cut next month.

Carol Schleif, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Private Wealth, said, "If it were not for the uncertainty caused by changes in trade policy, the Fed could have cut rates this summer," adding, "The Fed's pause in rate cuts is due to tariffs, and I expect one or two rate cuts to begin in September this year."

Lilian Chovin, Head of Asset Allocation at Coutts, said, "The market's focus is shifting to the tariff deadline and central bank actions," and analyzed, "The market is taking the slight slowdown in growth momentum positively and is once again raising expectations for rate cuts."

US Treasury yields remained steady. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note stood at 4.29%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is sensitive to monetary policy, was at 3.77%, both unchanged from the previous session.