[Choi Junyoung's World+]Sudden Ceasefire and an Unstable World Order

The Logic of Power Governs the International Order
What Matters Is Whether We Have the Strength to Defend Ourselves
Unresolved Issues Left by the Israel-Iran War

On the morning of June 24, President Trump declared a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war via social media. Both Iran and Israel were bewildered, but with both sides exhausted, they accepted the ceasefire declared by the United States, bringing an end to the war between the two countries that had lasted for 12 days.

The war and turmoil in the Middle East, which began with Hamas's surprise Iranian-backed attack in October 2023, completely changed the existing order. Israel neutralized Hamas and Hezbollah, which had been pressuring it, and Syria, which was supported by Iran, collapsed. Prime Minister Netanyahu's dream of toppling the last remaining Iranian regime by drawing in the United States and rewriting the Middle Eastern order with Israel at the center came to a halt at the final stage.

Now, the world is watching with concern to see whether the ceasefire between the two countries will lead to a new order and peace, or whether it will result in endless conflict and chaos. The confusion and ceasefire created by the unpredictable President Trump are leaving people perplexed.

A month ago, President Trump visited three Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, and criticized interventionists. He acknowledged that the reckless ideal of bringing liberal democracy to the Middle East by invading Iraq had brought two decades of chaos to the region, and he emphasized that he would not repeat such mistakes. Although President Trump chose the Middle East as the destination for his first overseas trip, he deliberately excluded Israel, making it clear that he was distancing himself from Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Since taking office, Trump lifted sanctions on Syria despite Israel's opposition, signed a large-scale arms supply deal and a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, which Israel had concerns about, and directly negotiated with Hamas for the release of an American-Israeli citizen abducted by Hamas, bypassing Israel. He also directly criticized Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu, mentioning that many people were starving due to Israel's blockade of Gaza. However, within just a month, President Trump carried out a direct attack on Iran?something no previous U.S. president had done?thus bringing the United States back into the Middle East issue.

On the 24th (local time), the UN Security Council meeting discussing the Iran nuclear issue. Photo by AFP and Yonhap News

President Trump's sudden change in stance appears to have been driven by continuous persuasion from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and by changing circumstances. In February, Netanyahu visited the White House and announced that he would soon attack Iran, requesting U.S. support, but Trump flatly refused. On the contrary, on April 12, Trump entered into nuclear negotiations with Iran despite Israel's objections. However, as negotiations with Iran did not go as expected, Trump's position began to shift. In early June, when Netanyahu indicated that Israel would soon attack Iran unilaterally, Trump expressed his willingness to support but reportedly remained hesitant.

However, after Israel's surprise attack on Iran on June 13 achieved significant results, Trump changed his attitude. Growing anxious over his lack of visible achievements since taking office, Trump concluded that if the United States intervened and delivered the final blow, it could resolve the Middle East issue without incurring losses. Israel, lacking the means to attack the Fordow nuclear facility located 80 meters underground, successfully drew the United States in by taking advantage of President Trump's impatience and desire for display.

Under President Trump's orders, the U.S. Air Force formed a large strike force, including seven B-2 stealth bombers equipped with GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs specialized for destroying underground facilities, and attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. According to satellite images, twelve precisely guided bunker-buster bombs caused extensive damage.

President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities had been completely destroyed and stressed that Iran must come to the negotiating table. He was brimming with confidence, having accomplished something no U.S. president had done since 1980. Riding this confidence, Trump unilaterally declared a ceasefire and made it clear that he held the initiative by having both Iran and Israel comply.

Iran consistently expressed its intention to retaliate after the U.S. bombing, but ultimately limited its response to a restricted attack on a U.S. military base stationed in Qatar. This was because Iran found it difficult to endure a prolonged war. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who believed that pushing a little further could lead to regime change in Iran, expressed dissatisfaction with the ceasefire, but Israel's warfighting capability had reached its limit, forcing it to accept the ceasefire.

For Israel, the 12-day war achieved most of its objectives by inflicting significant damage on Iran's nuclear program and long-range ballistic missiles, but there is inevitable regret and concern that Iran, having maintained its regime, will now seek to recover. Through this war, President Trump demonstrated to the world the extent of American power and dispelled criticisms of indecisiveness that had been directed at him.

With the ceasefire in place, each of the three countries now faces its own challenges. Iran must undertake sweeping reforms and renewal based on an analysis of the reasons and causes for its collapse. If not, it will face even greater internal conflict. Israel must resolve its ongoing Gaza problem, as well as address the internal divisions that had been temporarily patched up by the war. The United States must rapidly disengage from the Middle East and focus its resources on the confrontation with China. Of course, in order to do so, it must also manage the situation so that peace, rather than just a ceasefire, can be achieved.

The 12-day war and ceasefire revealed just how fragile the world order truly is. It was a period that made it clear that the logic of power reigns supreme. In the end, it was overwhelming force that resolved the issue. If we were to face a similar situation, the consequences would be far more destructive. It makes one wonder what power we possess and whether we could use it without hesitation to protect ourselves when the moment comes.

Choi Junyoung, Senior Expert at Yulchon LLC (Global Law and Policy)