Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Escalation Fears... Where Is KOSPI 3,000 Headed? [3-Min Brief]

[At a Glance]
1. Global economy at risk from Middle East geopolitical crisis
2. KOSPI wavers around the 3,000 mark
3. Impact of U.S. tariffs... Steel exports to the U.S. down 16.3% in May

MARKET INDEX

○All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher... WTI and Brent crude oil down 7.2%
○Iran fired missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq
○Advance notice given to the U.S.... signal to avoid escalation

TOP 3 NEWS

■ Crisis of Strait of Hormuz blockade... Global economy in total uncertainty

○The Lee administration held emergency meetings on the Middle East crisis for two consecutive days
○Concerns are rising over international oil prices and inflationary pressures due to the risk of escalation
○There are also concerns that the effects of the new government's expansionary fiscal policy may be diminished

■ Can the KOSPI hold above 3,000 amid Middle East variables?

○KOSPI fell below the 3,000 mark in just one day
○The key factor is the direction of oil prices
○Increased volatility is inevitable... fierce battle expected around the 3,000 level

■ Steel exports to the U.S. down 16%... Tariff measures take full effect

○Export unit prices fell by more than 9%... the impact of the 25% tariff is now in full swing
○If the 50% tariff is applied on the 4th of this month, conditions are expected to worsen further in the second half of the year
○Nippon Steel is seeking to acquire US Steel... outlook for Korean steel industry becomes even bleaker

Graphic News: The first mission of the Korea-Japan industrial community is an 'FTA'

○60 years since Korea-Japan normalization, moving forward as future cooperation partners
○Korea's GDP could increase by up to 0.37% in the mid- to long-term
○High potential in advanced, strategic materials, and healthcare sectors

Money-Making Law

■ "Death from myelodysplastic syndrome after working at a semiconductor plant ruled as an occupational accident"

○Causal relationship between work and illness recognized
○Impact of long shift work acknowledged
○Consideration given to complex exposure to hazardous substances
☞Read article:  https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/lawtimes/2025062317393945618

■ Will LawTalk make a comeback... 'Success fee-based' model also discussed as an alternative

○CPC advertising ban, alternatives under discussion
○LawTalk re-emerges after regulatory changes
○Ministry of Justice to strengthen platform management
☞Read article:  https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/lawtimes/2025062318151104619

■ Seven lawyers disbarred last year... Disciplinary actions increase in number and severity

○Lawyer disciplinary actions are increasing every year
○Sharp rise in severe penalties such as suspension and disbarment
○Fines tripled, raising ethical concerns
☞Read article:  https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/lawtimes/2025062318191811512

* 'Money-Making Law,' a content partnership section between Asia Economy and Law Times, is published every Tuesday and Thursday.

Key Schedules Today

○Domestic

06:00 Consumer Confidence Index (June)

KOSDAQ: KB No.32 SPAC subscription on the 23rd, planned offering price 2,000 KRW

KOSDAQ: NewN-AI subscription on the 23rd, finalized offering price 15,000 KRW

KOSDAQ: Daishin Value REITs subscription on the 23rd, finalized offering price 5,000 KRW

○Overseas

03:30 U.S. FOMC member Williams speaks

04:30 U.S. CFTC crude oil speculative net positions, CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions

14:00 Japan BoJ core CPI (YoY)

17:00 Germany Ifo Expectations Index (June)

22:00 U.S. S&P/CS 20-City Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) (MoM) (April)

23:00 U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index (June)

23:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testimony

◇Lunch & Evening Commute Weather

○Lowest temperature: 21°C (▲19°C) ｜Highest temperature: 29°C (▲31°C)
○Precipitation probability: 0% in the morning | 60% in the afternoon
○Fine dust: Moderate in the morning | Moderate in the afternoon

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