'Why Did Trump Pull the Trigger on the 'Iran Strike' Just Two Days After His Warning? [Global Focus]'

Trump Launches Surprise Airstrike Just Two Days After Setting Two-Week Deadline
Focus on Background of Decision Amid 'Deception Tactic' Allegations
Appears to Have Succeeded in Convincing Opponents by Relying on Core MAGA Supporters
Doubts Remain Over Actual Effectiveness of Iran Strike
Conflicting Claims from Iran: "No Impact from the Attack"

On June 21 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the trigger on an "Iran strike." He launched a surprise airstrike just two days after announcing a two-week deadline. Through a White House address, he publicly warned that if Iran does not stop its nuclear weapons development efforts as demanded by the United States, he would carry out even stronger attacks. Despite opposition from the Republican Party and some of his aides, President Trump, who had previously appeared cautious, is believed to have pressed the button immediately after successfully persuading his advisors and securing "political justification."

U.S. Justifies Use of Force...Reminiscent of 'Soleimani Elimination Operation'

In the early hours of June 21, President Trump shocked the world again by launching a large-scale precision airstrike on three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The targets?Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan?were core sites for Iran's nuclear development. This move came just two days after the White House spokesperson set a two-week deadline for a decision on the attack, effectively reversing his earlier statement. In this unpredictable situation, some observers described it as an American "deception tactic" against Iran.

On the night of the airstrike, President Trump delivered a national address from the White House, stating, "Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now build peace," and warned, "Future attacks will be much stronger and easier." In his speech, he identified Iran as a nation that has chanted "Death to America" for 40 years, claiming that this has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands in the U.S. and around the world. His tone was uncompromising. He first announced the airstrike on his personal social networking service, Truth Social. Afterwards, he repeatedly posted images of the American flag, justifying the use of U.S. military force.

This airstrike is reminiscent of the Iran attack during the first Trump administration five years ago. In 2020, President Trump approved the operation to eliminate Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The removal of Soleimani, regarded as a "national hero" in Iran, had a significant impact on the Middle East and became a decisive turning point in U.S.-Iran relations. At that time, Trump also celebrated the achievement by posting the American flag on social media. He has since touted it as one of the greatest accomplishments of his first term.

The New York Times commented, "President Trump built his political career by criticizing the Iraq War after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, and during his first term, he was most proud of the assassination of Iran's Qasem Soleimani." The Times also noted that while this caused some non-interventionist supporters to leave, Trump has argued that it served America's national interests.

Why Did Trump Make the Decision?

Regarding this surprise attack, President Trump's abrupt decision was made despite opposition from some Republicans and White House aides. Key figures included Stephen Bannon, the "strategist" who helped Trump win the presidency in his first term; conservative commentator and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson; and pro-Trump Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Opponents argued that Trump's core supporters prefer to minimize involvement in foreign conflicts, and that such a move would alienate his base. There was also a consensus that, with domestic issues such as inflation, immigration, and public safety being severe, the U.S. should focus on internal affairs rather than overseas matters. For this reason, they explained, the U.S. should limit itself to non-military measures, such as information sharing.

Carlson, for example, emphasized an "America First" foreign policy on his show and directly criticized President Trump, leading to friction. However, Trump referred to Carlson as a "kooky" and revealed that Carlson later called to apologize.

There was also pushback from Congress, which pointed out that the president's authority was not explicitly defined in the Constitution. Republican Representative Thomas Massie, along with Democratic lawmakers, introduced a resolution requiring congressional approval before any attack on Iran. Massie argued, "This is not our war. Even so, Congress must decide according to the Constitution." Republican Representative Tim Burchett also opposed intervention, saying, "We don't need endless wars in the Middle East. The history of war is that older people make the decisions and young people die."

However, according to The Guardian, the mood inside the White House has recently shifted. Some aides have changed their stance, arguing that "if Israel can no longer continue its airstrikes, the U.S. must deliver a short, powerful blow." As a result, Trump gained both strategic justification and political flexibility, and he approved the attack targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.

Unlike traditional Republicans, the unwavering support of the hardline MAGA (Make America Great Again) base is also seen as a source of strength for President Trump. Even as reports of divisions within the conservative camp poured out from the White House, Trump expressed confidence, saying, "My supporters are more in love with me now than ever before." Even Stephen Bannon, a war opponent, predicted that "while the MAGA base may have complaints, they will ultimately support Trump," suggesting reasonable acceptance.

Polls supported this. According to a New York Post report citing a J.L. Partners survey conducted on June 16-17, as many as 65% of MAGA Republicans supported the Iran airstrike. This is 14 percentage points higher than the support among traditional Republicans (51%) and 7 percentage points higher than among all Republican voters (58%). J.L. Partners had previously accurately predicted the 3 percentage point gap between President Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris in the November 2023 U.S. presidential election.

Uncertainty Over Actual Impact of Iran Airstrike

However, the actual effectiveness of the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities carried out by President Trump remains unclear at this time. Some U.S. intelligence agencies have suggested that Iran may have already moved its uranium elsewhere. If Iran regards this attack as a limited strike, its retaliation may also be limited. However, if Iran perceives it as an insult, it may launch retaliatory attacks targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East.

In reality, contrary to President Trump's boasts, it is difficult for anyone other than the countries involved to directly verify the actual scale of Iran's damage. The Crisis Management Headquarters of Qom Province, where Fordow is located, issued a statement claiming, "There is no danger to residents of Qom and nearby areas," presenting a conflicting view. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also posted the Iranian flag on its X account, declaring, "The war has now begun."

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) stated that data from radiation monitoring systems and on-site investigations showed no signs of contamination or danger to residents of Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan. They said, "According to on-site investigations and radiation monitoring system data after the U.S. illegal attack, no contamination has been recorded," adding, "There are no risk factors for residents in these areas."

Time magazine wrote, "This operation is the most direct U.S. military intervention on Iranian territory in decades," expressing concerns about energy market instability, exposure of U.S. troops to danger, and the possible involvement of pro-Iranian forces. The magazine especially warned, "Trump hopes this airstrike will extract more concessions from Iran, but the reality could be the opposite." The BBC stated, "Trump appears to expect that this U.S. bombing will secure more concessions from Iran in negotiations, but given that Iran refused to engage in talks while under Israeli attack, it seems even less likely to negotiate now that it has also been bombed by the U.S."