Where Did Lee Jaemyung See the Biggest Increase and Decrease in Vote Share?

Yesan County in South Chungcheong Ranks First in Increase, Deokjin District in Jeonju Ranks First in Decrease
Many Areas with Increases in Chungcheong, Gwanak District is the Only Non-Honam Area with a Decrease

In the June 3 presidential election, Lee Jaemyung, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, received 49.42% of the vote. Although he did not achieve a majority, he set a new record for the highest number of votes in history, with over 17.28 million votes. His landslide victory in the Seoul metropolitan area, overwhelming support in the Honam region, and the narrowing of the gap in Yeongnam and Chungcheong led to a margin of about 2.89 million votes, resulting in "President Lee Jaemyung." Compared to the 2022 presidential election, when he lost by about 247,000 votes, the landscape has changed significantly over the past three years.

While the impact of the "martial law and impeachment" was significant, it alone cannot explain the outcome. This is because victory in high-level political battles does not always guarantee victory in the overall contest. Factors such as the movements of key figures, the composition of major members, and the activity of grassroots organizations also play a role. Based on data from the National Election Commission, we examined which basic local governments saw the largest increase and decrease in Lee Jaemyung's vote share compared to the 2022 presidential election. The results of this election are also noteworthy in relation to the local elections scheduled for June 3 next year.

Chungcheong was the region that drew the most attention regarding the increase in vote share. Among the top 10 areas with the highest increase in vote share, six?Yesan County, Gyeryong City, Sejong Special Self-Governing City, Dangjin City, Hongseong County, and Gongju City?were located in the Chungcheong region. In the 10th to 20th rankings, six more areas from Chungcheong?Taean, Goesan, Cheongyang, Boeun, Seosan, and Jincheon?were included. It was also notable that both Hongseong and Yesan, where former South Chungcheong Governor Yang Seungjo serves as regional chair, ranked in the top 10. Overall, compared to the 2022 presidential election, the upward trend in the Chungcheong region was particularly pronounced in this election.

Ganghwa County, which ranked second in the rate of increase, is a border area between North and South Korea and is considered a region with a strong conservative political leaning, but its vote share rose by 4.03 percentage points. Cho Taeksang, the Democratic Party’s regional chair for Jung-gu, Ganghwa-gun, and Ongjin-gun in Incheon, said in a phone interview, "The North Korean loudspeaker broadcasts toward the South, which began last July due to the Yoon Sukyeol administration’s confrontational policy toward North Korea, have caused great distress to residents. I believe this had an impact. President Lee Jaemyung’s decision on June 12 to halt the loudspeaker broadcasts, followed by a corresponding response from North Korea, has been welcomed by the residents."

Most of the areas where President Lee’s vote share declined compared to the 2022 presidential election were in the Honam region. Out of 252 basic local governments nationwide, only 19 saw a decrease. While all of the top 10 areas with increased vote share saw a rise of more than 3 percentage points, the decreases in the declining areas were very slight. Even in Deokjin District of Jeonju, which experienced the largest decrease, the drop was only -1.05 percentage points. Among the top 10 areas with the largest decrease, Gwanak District, which ranked second with -1.02 percentage points, was the only one outside the Honam region.

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