Japan Society of Civil Engineers Analysis
Economic Impact Estimated at 1,466 Trillion Yen
Recovery May Take 22 Years
It has been projected that if the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake occurs in Japan, economic damages could amount to approximately 1,384.7 trillion won (1,466 trillion yen) over 22 years. This estimated amount is about 2.4 times larger than Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) of 609 trillion yen last year.
It is projected that if the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake occurs in Japan, economic damages could amount to approximately 1,384.7 trillion won over 22 years. (The photo is not related to the article) Pixabay
On June 11, Kyodo News reported that the Japan Society of Civil Engineers released a report containing this analysis. The Society calculated the long-term scale of damages, estimating that the impact of the Nankai earthquake would last for about 22 years, based on the time required for economic recovery after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Previously, in March, an expert panel under Japan's Cabinet Office estimated that if a magnitude 9.0 Nankai Trough earthquake were to occur off the coast of the Hyuganada region, there could be about 298,000 deaths and 292.3 trillion yen in economic damages. However, these figures reflect only the impact during the first year after the earthquake. The analysis by the Society of Civil Engineers differs in that it takes into account the long-term effects.
The Society also warned that a Tokyo metropolitan epicentral earthquake poses a threat comparable to the Nankai earthquake. If such an earthquake occurs, it is projected that economic damages could reach up to 1,110 trillion yen (about 1,048.4 trillion won), which is equivalent to 1.8 times Japan's GDP. The Society stated that a significant portion of the damages could be reduced through infrastructure reinforcement. In the case of the Nankai earthquake, approximately 58 trillion yen invested in reinforcement measures could reduce damages by 396 trillion yen. For a Tokyo metropolitan epicentral earthquake, 21 trillion yen in countermeasures could result in a reduction of 410 trillion yen in damages.
The Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake is a massive event of magnitude 8 to 9 that has occurred every 100 to 150 years in the waters from off the coast of Shizuoka Prefecture to the southern part of Shikoku and the eastern sea of Kyushu. The most recent events occurred in 1944 and 1946, and nearly 80 years have passed since then.
Rumors of a 'July Earthquake' Lead to Decrease in Flights
Previously, in January, the Japanese government's Earthquake Research Committee raised the probability of a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake occurring within the next 30 years from the previous '70%?80%' to 'about 80%'. As a result, anxiety has been spreading.
In Hong Kong, rumors that 'a major earthquake will occur in Japan in July 2025' have been affecting air travel demand. The origin of the rumor lies in the Japanese manga 'The Future I Saw,' published in 1999, and its sequel. The author of the manga is known to have predicted the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the sequel includes the statement, 'The real disaster is July 2025.'
Experts have assessed that predictions of a major earthquake occurring at a specific time have no scientific basis, and that any previous predictions that came true were merely coincidences.
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