[Exclusive] Local Election Forecast Based on Presidential Voting Patterns... Democratic Party Expected to Win 129 Basic Local Governments

Democratic Party Expected to Win 11 Metropolitan Governments, People Power Party 6
A Shift from the People Power Party's Dominance in the 2022 Local Elections

Based on the voting patterns revealed by the results of the 6·3 presidential election, predictions for the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3 next year indicate that the Democratic Party of Korea is likely to win in 129 basic local governments. Compared to the landslide victory of the People Power Party in the 8th nationwide local elections in 2022, this suggests that the public sentiment landscape has changed significantly over the past three years. However, with one year remaining until next year's local elections, and depending on the electoral dynamics, the results for both ruling and opposition parties could change significantly.

On June 9, Asia Economy conducted a comprehensive analysis of the election results from the National Election Commission for 17 metropolitan governments and 226 basic local governments. Analyzing the regional voting patterns in the presidential election, the results show that the Democratic Party could potentially reclaim its position as the leading party in local governments in the 2026 local elections. In particular, the Chungcheong region and basic local governments in South Gyeongsang Province are expected to be key battlegrounds between the parties.

Preview of Next Year's Local Elections

The 9th local elections will be held on June 3 next year. The voting patterns observed in this presidential election serve as valuable data to gauge the current public sentiment ahead of next year's local elections. The previous local elections held in 2022 resulted in a sweeping victory for the then-ruling People Power Party. Of the 17 metropolitan governments, the People Power Party secured 12, while the Democratic Party managed to hold on to only 5?Gyeonggi, Honam, and Jeju.

On the first day of early voting for the 21st presidential election on the 29th, a voter is casting a precious vote at the early voting station set up at Yeoksam 1-dong Community Center in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. 2025.5.29 Photo by Cho Yongjun

The People Power Party won in 145 out of 226 basic local governments. The Democratic Party led in 63, independents in 17, and the Progressive Party in 1. Since these local elections were held right after the March 2022 presidential election, the environment was favorable to the ruling party. In reality, the Democratic Party, which was the opposition at the time, lost all metropolitan governments in the capital region except for Gyeonggi Province. The party also suffered defeats in all of the Chungcheong region, including Daejeon, Sejong, South Chungcheong, and North Chungcheong.

Changing Voting Patterns After Three Years

However, an analysis based on the results of the 6·3 presidential election shows that the regional power dynamics have changed significantly compared to three years ago.

If the presidential election results are directly reflected in the metropolitan government elections, the Democratic Party would have an advantage in 11 regions (Seoul, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Sejong, Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, and Jeju). The People Power Party would have the upper hand in 6 regions (Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, Gangwon, North Gyeongsang, and South Gyeongsang). While some areas in Honam and Yeongnam showed significant margins, there were also several regions where the difference in vote share was within 10 percentage points.

If the presidential election results are applied to the basic local government elections, the Democratic Party would lead in 129 out of 226 basic local governments. However, the People Power Party would still have an advantage in 97 regions. Compared to the 2022 local elections, the Democratic Party has regained competitiveness in basic local governments in Seoul, the capital region, and the Chungcheong region.

However, even if next year's local election results mirror those of the presidential election, this would still fall short of the Democratic Party's landslide victory in the 7th nationwide local elections. At that time, the Democratic Party won 14 metropolitan governments (Liberty Korea Party 2, other affiliations 1). In basic local governments, the Democratic Party led in 151 (Liberty Korea Party 53, Party for Democracy and Peace 5, Independents 17), achieving a sweeping victory.

Heading into next year's local elections, the key battlegrounds are expected to be the Chungcheong region and the Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (PK) area. In these regions, the recent presidential election produced interesting results, with the opposition party performing well in areas traditionally dominated by the ruling party. In the case of the Chungcheong region, the Democratic Party won in Chungju, which had previously been classified as a stronghold for conservative parties. However, the vote difference between Lee Jaemyung of the Democratic Party and Kim Moonsu of the People Power Party was only 0.8 percentage points.

In Hongseong, South Chungcheong, which is considered a conservative stronghold, Kim Moonsu received 46.41% of the vote, while Lee Jaemyung's share was also high at 45.21%, resulting in a narrow margin of just 1.2 percentage points. Furthermore, in areas such as Yangsan and Geoje in South Gyeongsang, the ruling and opposition parties were locked in close races with margins of just 2 to 4 percentage points, suggesting that next year's local elections will be highly unpredictable.